***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2020.-23.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 4.4 8.8 9.8 105.8 68.7 54.1 0.1 1.8 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 7.3 9.9 9.2 103.0 68.9 56.4 1.2 5.6 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 9.4 12.8 9.1 94.7 63.9 54.3 1.6 7.7 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 5.5 12.3 8.4 87.8 69.7 52.2 0.2 2.7 8.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 2.4 4.4 8.4 91.3 67.2 53.6 0.0 0.6 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 0.3 4.3 9.2 84.8 66.1 48.9 0.0 0.7 4.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 8.4 14.3 9.8 107.6 71.0 58.6 0.9 5.9 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 7.9 8.2 9.0 80.2 59.9 50.9 1.3 3.9 10.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 3.3 7.7 9.2 91.1 65.3 53.7 0.0 0.8 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 4.6 7.6 10.6 89.5 61.6 52.5 0.0 1.9 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 2.2 4.1 7.4 85.5 66.8 53.1 0.1 0.9 3.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 2.8 5.4 6.9 75.3 62.8 51.2 0.0 1.2 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 0.0 3.6 8.0 80.7 65.4 49.3 0.0 0.0 3.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 4.0 15.6 12.0 100.1 66.0 52.9 3.6 8.3 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 0.3 6.0 6.9 92.4 73.3 55.0 0.0 0.7 2.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 0.4 3.3 7.4 80.0 66.8 50.6 0.0 0.9 2.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 6.2 11.5 10.1 111.2 70.7 55.5 0.4 4.4 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 8.6 9.4 13.1 95.1 60.8 51.8 0.3 4.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 4.7 12.3 9.2 102.7 68.3 56.1 1.0 2.3 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 1.1 5.7 12.0 84.3 56.4 49.2 0.3 2.3 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 3.7 7.1 8.9 90.5 66.8 53.0 0.4 1.2 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 10.3 15.2 10.7 118.0 69.2 55.8 0.5 8.2 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.1 15.4 9.1 101.5 67.6 54.1 1.6 4.5 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 9.5 13.1 11.4 96.1 63.6 53.0 1.2 5.8 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 3.4 7.7 10.9 110.0 71.0 55.5 0.0 1.8 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 1.7 1.2 5.5 68.0 62.2 49.1 0.0 0.2 2.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 10.0 15.5 11.0 111.9 69.8 55.5 1.3 6.9 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 3.5 7.1 7.6 84.5 68.9 52.9 0.0 0.8 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.0 12.3 12.9 89.8 59.1 49.8 0.9 8.6 16.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 6.5 11.9 9.5 104.8 68.7 57.4 0.4 5.2 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------