***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2020.-16.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 7.0 11.6 8.2 103.1 69.1 53.9 1.0 2.8 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 1.2 12.5 8.8 127.3 72.6 53.5 0.6 2.8 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.6 18.4 9.8 118.0 70.5 54.4 0.9 3.9 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 2.1 9.9 7.1 87.3 65.9 50.4 0.8 4.2 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.3 8.5 6.5 87.0 65.4 50.3 0.8 2.6 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.2 15.0 10.8 117.9 68.4 52.8 1.9 6.6 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 1.2 13.8 8.9 123.8 72.8 53.7 0.8 2.8 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 9.6 11.9 7.2 87.0 61.8 50.5 4.4 7.5 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 9.3 11.7 7.3 88.3 64.8 49.2 0.8 6.9 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 12.4 12.3 7.8 83.2 61.0 50.3 2.4 10.0 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 6.3 7.6 5.6 89.4 65.5 51.3 0.8 4.2 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 5.3 6.6 6.1 93.7 65.8 51.9 0.3 3.1 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.4 6.8 8.0 112.1 72.2 53.1 0.9 4.3 5.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.5 17.4 14.0 126.0 71.1 53.4 5.4 11.9 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 4.6 8.3 6.8 107.1 70.6 51.5 0.6 2.3 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 1.3 5.4 6.4 92.0 65.8 50.0 0.5 2.7 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 1.6 7.8 8.9 120.6 72.5 51.0 1.8 3.7 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.1 9.1 10.1 82.2 57.0 48.1 2.0 7.2 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 1.5 17.6 9.5 132.9 73.6 54.5 1.9 3.2 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 6.9 7.0 10.5 88.7 58.8 49.9 4.0 4.8 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.6 11.6 7.4 95.6 67.1 51.1 0.9 7.8 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.0 11.5 9.9 123.8 72.7 52.5 1.6 4.1 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 6.3 13.3 10.6 135.7 75.7 54.3 1.0 4.1 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.2 10.6 97.3 62.1 49.2 3.8 10.7 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 4.0 12.3 7.9 96.5 68.3 52.4 2.9 8.4 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 7.4 11.7 6.4 112.3 73.0 51.0 0.3 4.8 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 7.3 10.4 8.7 102.8 67.9 52.7 1.5 5.4 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.3 5.5 7.1 96.7 66.7 50.8 1.2 3.6 5.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 11.9 10.9 11.3 86.0 56.4 47.9 4.6 8.4 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 1.5 11.9 9.6 131.0 73.4 54.5 1.4 3.2 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------