***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2020.-09.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 13.5 12.2 7.1 66.8 56.5 44.6 3.8 11.3 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 9.8 19.1 7.8 84.4 64.4 51.8 2.4 6.3 20.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 7.4 10.0 8.7 77.0 60.4 50.8 2.0 5.2 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 14.0 9.3 6.0 55.5 49.5 42.8 6.2 9.3 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.1 8.3 6.5 62.0 54.1 43.9 3.2 7.5 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.1 8.3 7.9 61.8 53.1 42.2 0.2 6.8 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 13.5 14.8 8.1 90.9 65.0 53.8 1.7 11.2 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 19.0 16.9 7.6 64.5 54.3 45.1 10.3 15.5 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.7 9.9 6.7 58.3 52.8 42.3 5.2 9.8 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 14.5 13.3 8.1 67.3 56.9 46.7 5.8 10.3 20.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.0 11.0 7.2 67.9 55.5 42.8 3.4 8.8 18.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.3 6.5 63.8 54.4 44.5 3.3 7.8 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 6.5 5.3 6.2 60.5 56.6 46.2 0.5 4.4 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 12.0 12.8 10.6 76.8 58.9 48.7 1.6 10.3 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 10.6 10.3 5.1 55.1 56.0 46.8 4.0 8.2 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.2 7.4 6.4 62.5 53.9 42.7 2.9 6.6 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 12.7 27.4 9.2 100.0 67.4 55.7 2.9 8.3 25.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.9 11.7 9.4 66.6 52.3 43.8 6.0 10.4 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 10.3 19.6 8.5 87.1 64.9 52.4 1.2 5.8 20.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.5 13.8 11.4 80.7 55.1 48.0 4.5 10.8 18.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.0 10.3 7.0 61.4 53.0 42.3 0.9 9.5 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 10.0 14.3 10.1 104.1 68.2 56.6 2.7 6.7 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 7.2 10.9 9.6 87.6 63.0 52.6 2.3 4.6 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 18.8 14.6 9.5 70.9 55.6 44.5 7.1 13.0 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 13.0 12.2 9.3 76.6 56.9 46.8 2.1 10.4 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 7.9 5.2 6.3 60.6 51.5 45.3 1.0 5.1 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 10.3 9.8 8.5 71.5 56.3 46.3 3.5 7.8 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 9.6 7.3 5.4 55.7 53.9 45.9 3.0 6.4 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 18.9 19.7 11.1 72.5 53.0 45.7 6.3 15.8 28.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 6.8 10.4 7.8 81.2 63.0 51.7 1.4 4.6 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------