***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2020.-02.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 1.6 1.9 5.9 34.8 43.3 36.8 0.9 3.6 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 2.0 3.9 4.3 28.3 41.8 32.6 2.1 5.5 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.0 2.3 5.0 30.0 42.3 34.5 0.7 4.5 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 1.4 0.9 3.3 17.8 30.8 28.1 1.0 4.2 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 1.4 1.1 3.4 20.4 35.3 29.7 0.6 4.3 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 78 22 0 100 0.9 0.0 3.6 20.0 27.3 25.6 0.2 3.9 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 4.2 1.7 4.9 31.4 43.2 35.4 0.9 2.0 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 2.5 1.3 4.8 22.7 31.3 27.6 2.0 10.9 19.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 1.2 0.8 4.6 25.6 36.2 32.3 0.3 3.2 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 2.3 1.7 5.0 22.4 32.0 28.5 2.1 7.9 10.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 1.5 1.1 3.1 17.4 33.6 28.9 1.1 5.2 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 0.7 0.6 3.3 21.1 34.5 28.7 0.5 2.8 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 1.6 0.8 2.5 17.7 32.7 28.1 0.8 5.6 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 1.5 1.3 5.4 26.8 35.6 30.3 0.9 4.4 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 0.9 0.1 1.5 8.2 31.5 26.1 0.2 3.0 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 1.0 1.2 2.9 19.3 31.3 28.1 1.3 3.5 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.0 2.3 5.8 39.2 45.5 35.1 0.4 4.7 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 3.1 0.6 6.4 28.0 32.3 28.8 0.6 10.9 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 1.4 1.7 4.4 27.3 40.8 32.0 0.1 3.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 78 22 0 100 2.3 3.0 5.6 24.7 27.9 24.9 5.5 9.8 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 2.6 4.0 5.0 29.4 40.0 34.5 2.3 6.3 19.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 2.4 2.2 5.1 33.0 43.7 33.5 0.5 6.1 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 0.7 0.6 5.1 30.3 41.4 32.9 0.2 1.8 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 4.0 5.2 5.7 29.0 38.3 31.9 2.4 10.8 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 1.6 0.8 5.0 29.2 40.1 33.8 0.3 3.6 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 80 20 0 100 0.9 0.9 1.4 11.3 25.4 22.7 1.6 4.3 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 1.3 1.3 5.7 33.2 41.8 36.2 0.4 2.8 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 1.3 0.7 2.9 15.0 30.6 28.1 0.8 4.2 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 3.9 6.2 6.0 28.0 31.3 27.8 6.3 11.8 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 1.3 2.2 4.1 25.7 41.7 33.3 1.4 2.8 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------