***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2020.-23.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 30.4 29.8 29.2 -0.3 46.4 48.4 28.2 30.0 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 27.7 28.3 28.8 -0.8 40.1 43.8 28.0 29.3 30.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 29.9 29.3 29.4 -0.4 46.1 47.9 27.7 29.4 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 24.5 23.4 28.1 0.8 60.8 59.0 21.3 23.1 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 30.8 30.5 27.9 0.0 50.4 51.6 28.8 30.4 31.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 29.8 30.2 25.7 0.5 60.5 57.6 27.1 29.5 30.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 27.4 28.7 29.0 -0.4 43.8 46.9 27.6 29.0 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 19.1 18.8 26.4 0.1 54.0 52.9 15.9 18.8 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 30.0 29.6 28.0 0.0 48.9 51.9 27.9 29.7 30.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 29.7 29.3 26.9 0.2 54.6 54.2 27.1 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 30.4 30.3 27.8 -0.1 51.1 51.0 28.0 29.9 31.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 30.0 29.8 27.8 0.0 51.9 51.6 26.8 29.6 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 31.1 31.0 26.8 -0.1 51.5 51.4 28.2 30.7 31.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 29.7 29.3 27.1 -0.4 47.9 48.2 27.0 29.5 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 31.6 31.4 29.5 1.0 64.4 61.2 28.4 30.3 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 31.8 31.7 27.6 0.2 54.0 53.7 28.9 31.5 32.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 26.7 28.0 28.5 -0.6 42.4 45.2 27.6 28.4 29.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 29.0 28.8 26.1 0.2 54.3 53.9 26.1 28.6 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 29.5 28.1 28.9 -0.8 40.9 43.5 27.4 29.0 29.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 25.5 25.4 23.6 0.1 55.4 53.2 21.8 25.1 26.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 29.8 29.3 28.7 -0.2 47.7 49.5 27.6 29.3 31.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 29.2 28.4 28.6 -0.6 45.6 46.4 27.8 28.6 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 29.4 28.3 29.1 -0.7 43.6 45.2 27.3 29.0 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 29.4 29.0 27.4 -0.1 49.8 50.9 26.8 29.0 29.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 30.3 29.9 27.6 -0.1 49.0 50.1 27.7 29.9 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 30.6 30.8 27.8 0.2 54.7 54.3 27.9 30.3 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 29.7 29.1 28.3 -0.2 48.1 49.4 27.6 29.2 30.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 31.8 31.9 28.7 1.0 65.0 61.6 28.8 30.4 31.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 24.6 24.5 24.9 0.0 52.7 52.2 21.3 24.3 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 27.4 28.2 29.0 -0.6 42.7 45.3 27.8 29.1 30.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------