***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2020.-16.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 29.6 29.1 29.8 -0.1 50.6 49.7 28.0 29.1 30.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 27.9 29.1 29.4 -0.4 48.8 46.1 28.4 29.2 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 29.6 29.1 30.1 -0.1 50.9 49.9 28.2 29.0 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 22.2 22.5 28.9 1.0 64.4 60.3 20.5 21.5 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 30.0 29.5 28.5 0.1 52.7 52.1 28.6 29.3 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 28.5 28.9 26.2 0.5 61.2 56.9 26.7 27.9 29.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 29.3 29.1 29.7 0.0 52.1 49.9 28.1 28.9 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 17.7 17.4 27.0 0.2 55.5 53.1 16.4 17.1 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 29.6 29.1 28.6 0.2 53.2 52.8 27.7 28.9 29.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 29.1 28.8 27.5 0.4 57.1 55.1 27.6 28.5 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 29.7 29.0 28.3 0.0 52.0 50.3 27.9 29.0 30.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 28.7 28.5 28.4 0.0 53.7 50.9 27.0 28.0 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 29.8 29.0 27.3 -0.1 52.3 49.7 28.1 28.9 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 29.3 29.0 27.7 -0.1 53.3 50.7 27.7 28.8 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 29.9 30.8 30.4 1.3 67.6 63.4 28.8 29.3 30.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 30.9 30.3 28.1 0.2 54.9 52.5 28.7 30.1 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 29.0 28.6 29.3 -0.3 49.6 48.0 27.7 28.6 29.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 28.3 28.2 26.8 0.5 58.8 56.1 26.4 27.7 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 29.3 28.5 29.6 -0.5 47.4 45.7 27.6 28.7 30.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 24.1 24.3 24.3 0.4 57.6 55.0 22.3 23.5 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 29.4 29.0 29.3 0.0 51.8 50.9 28.2 28.8 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 29.6 29.1 29.3 -0.2 51.2 49.4 28.4 29.1 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 29.3 28.7 29.7 -0.4 48.8 47.5 28.2 28.7 30.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 28.9 28.7 28.1 0.2 55.0 53.4 27.4 28.4 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 29.7 29.3 28.2 0.1 52.1 51.3 28.2 29.0 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 29.6 29.2 28.4 0.3 55.2 53.2 27.8 28.9 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 29.3 29.1 28.9 0.0 52.7 50.8 27.8 28.8 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 29.9 30.7 29.6 1.3 66.9 63.0 28.3 29.2 30.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 23.8 23.5 25.5 0.3 56.4 54.1 22.0 23.2 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 29.7 29.1 29.7 -0.3 49.6 47.6 27.7 29.2 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------