***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2020.-09.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 29.7 30.7 30.5 0.6 61.8 57.6 28.0 29.1 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 29.7 29.3 30.0 -0.2 52.0 50.8 28.4 29.2 30.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 29.5 29.6 30.7 0.4 59.1 56.3 27.8 28.7 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 24.5 25.1 29.4 2.1 76.2 72.3 20.8 22.2 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 31.7 31.0 29.6 1.2 67.3 64.0 28.5 29.4 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 30.0 30.4 27.7 2.1 77.8 73.0 27.0 28.8 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 29.4 29.5 30.4 0.3 59.6 55.6 28.0 28.8 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 19.0 19.5 27.8 1.3 69.2 65.5 17.2 17.7 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 29.2 30.4 30.0 1.2 66.2 63.5 28.0 28.6 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 30.5 30.2 28.5 1.5 70.0 66.6 27.6 28.6 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 29.5 30.3 29.8 1.1 65.9 62.5 28.2 28.9 30.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 45 55 100 29.6 30.1 29.3 1.3 67.6 64.2 27.3 28.5 30.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 30.1 31.1 29.2 1.0 65.8 61.7 28.6 29.7 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 28.9 29.9 28.8 0.5 61.1 58.1 27.6 28.3 30.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 31.7 32.0 31.8 2.1 75.2 71.7 29.2 30.3 31.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 31.9 32.4 29.5 1.3 68.3 64.9 29.1 30.3 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 28.9 28.4 29.7 -0.1 51.7 51.2 27.7 28.3 29.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 29.5 29.7 27.5 1.4 70.6 66.3 26.6 27.4 28.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 29.1 28.7 30.1 -0.2 52.5 51.0 27.5 28.6 30.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 25.6 26.1 25.5 1.5 71.3 68.1 23.0 23.9 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 29.7 30.7 30.5 0.9 64.8 60.5 27.8 29.1 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 29.6 29.1 29.8 0.1 53.8 53.0 28.0 29.0 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 29.1 28.8 30.4 0.1 58.1 53.9 27.7 28.3 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 28.6 29.5 29.2 0.9 65.8 61.6 27.3 28.1 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 30.1 30.6 29.3 0.7 64.2 59.6 28.0 29.6 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 31.0 31.0 29.3 1.6 71.5 67.3 28.0 29.6 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 29.3 30.0 29.8 0.7 62.9 58.7 28.0 28.7 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 31.7 32.2 30.6 2.4 78.5 74.5 29.1 30.3 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 24.9 25.5 26.5 1.2 69.7 65.2 22.4 23.1 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 29.3 29.1 30.3 0.1 55.9 53.1 27.8 28.8 30.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------