***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2020.-02.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 29.9 30.8 30.1 0.9 63.7 62.4 28.7 29.6 31.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 29.9 30.3 29.8 0.4 58.8 56.0 28.1 29.6 31.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 29.8 30.5 30.2 0.8 60.1 59.4 27.8 29.6 30.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 24.3 24.7 27.9 1.8 73.6 72.3 20.4 22.7 24.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 46 54 100 31.3 31.4 28.9 1.3 66.6 65.9 27.7 30.0 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 30.0 30.3 26.8 1.6 74.2 71.3 26.2 28.6 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 30.1 30.7 30.1 0.9 62.7 61.8 27.9 29.9 30.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 19.0 19.4 26.9 1.5 70.0 68.4 16.1 17.2 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 47 53 100 30.7 31.1 29.8 1.4 67.1 67.2 27.3 29.5 31.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 30.6 31.1 27.8 1.7 70.6 69.9 27.1 28.9 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 29.8 31.0 29.2 1.0 64.2 63.4 26.9 29.4 31.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 30.0 30.4 28.2 1.2 68.2 65.8 26.4 28.6 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 30.0 30.7 28.8 0.7 60.4 60.1 27.5 29.7 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 30.6 31.3 29.3 1.7 70.5 69.6 27.1 29.2 30.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 46 54 100 31.6 32.2 31.0 1.5 67.5 66.7 28.4 30.3 32.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 45 55 100 31.7 32.3 28.9 1.1 65.8 63.8 27.7 30.3 32.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 29.8 30.2 29.7 0.7 61.9 59.8 27.5 29.6 30.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 29.7 30.3 27.0 1.9 74.3 72.9 26.0 28.0 29.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 29.6 29.5 29.9 0.4 58.6 56.0 27.5 29.3 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 25.7 26.1 25.2 2.0 77.0 75.1 22.0 23.9 25.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 29.9 31.1 30.3 1.2 65.6 65.4 27.6 29.5 31.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 46 54 100 30.7 30.6 29.9 1.1 65.8 64.1 28.0 29.9 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 29.2 30.0 30.2 0.7 60.9 59.1 27.3 28.9 30.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 30.4 30.2 29.3 1.7 69.2 69.6 26.7 29.0 30.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 30.8 31.0 29.0 0.9 62.5 62.7 28.1 30.5 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 30.5 30.8 28.1 1.2 68.3 65.8 27.0 29.3 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 29.8 30.7 29.6 1.0 63.4 63.8 27.5 29.5 30.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 31.7 32.2 29.5 1.9 73.7 72.6 27.9 30.4 32.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 25.3 25.7 26.3 1.9 74.8 73.5 21.2 23.7 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 29.9 30.1 29.9 0.5 59.4 57.1 27.8 29.7 30.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------