***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2020.-23.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 15.8 15.4 18.0 -0.5 43.5 44.3 14.7 15.5 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 15.7 14.6 17.7 -0.5 40.7 44.5 14.3 15.3 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 18.3 17.6 18.4 -0.3 45.3 46.6 17.1 18.0 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 13.7 13.5 16.2 0.3 55.2 55.7 12.3 13.2 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 14.0 13.6 15.8 -0.1 49.7 49.7 12.8 13.6 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 13.2 13.2 14.3 0.3 58.0 55.5 12.4 13.1 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.1 18.0 -0.4 44.9 46.7 14.8 15.5 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 8.9 8.8 14.0 0.1 54.0 53.9 7.5 8.6 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 15.4 15.1 15.8 -0.1 49.8 49.7 13.7 15.1 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 15.2 15.2 14.6 0.1 52.9 53.3 14.1 15.0 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 14.8 14.4 15.6 -0.1 48.3 50.2 13.5 14.5 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 13.1 13.0 14.8 0.0 52.0 52.1 11.7 13.0 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 13.7 13.5 13.9 0.0 51.4 50.1 12.7 13.5 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.8 15.4 15.8 -0.2 48.4 49.7 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 16.5 16.8 17.8 0.5 60.7 58.5 14.8 16.3 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.5 14.9 0.1 51.2 51.9 14.3 15.4 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.2 15.7 17.6 -0.4 44.3 46.5 15.2 15.8 16.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.1 12.9 13.7 0.2 53.5 55.1 12.1 12.8 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.0 17.8 -0.5 40.9 44.1 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 9.4 9.4 11.5 0.3 56.1 55.9 8.4 9.2 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 14.8 14.2 17.1 -0.3 45.8 47.1 13.5 14.4 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 14.8 14.5 17.6 -0.3 45.4 47.2 13.9 14.5 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 14.9 14.4 17.8 -0.4 44.1 45.5 13.7 14.6 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 15.3 15.1 15.7 0.0 50.6 51.7 14.1 15.0 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 15.0 14.5 16.5 -0.4 44.2 45.1 14.2 14.6 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.4 13.9 0.2 55.4 53.6 13.4 14.1 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 16.3 15.2 17.2 -0.5 44.1 44.5 14.3 15.9 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.0 14.2 16.7 0.5 61.9 59.5 12.6 13.7 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.2 13.2 0.2 54.2 54.9 12.0 13.0 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.0 18.0 -0.5 42.0 44.6 14.7 15.4 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------