***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2020.-16.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 14.9 15.7 18.5 -0.5 43.9 44.6 15.3 15.8 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 14.7 15.1 18.2 -0.6 40.4 41.6 15.0 15.4 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 17.2 17.9 18.9 -0.4 43.2 44.9 17.2 18.2 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.6 14.0 16.7 0.3 55.6 55.4 12.9 13.2 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.2 16.3 -0.2 46.8 47.3 13.4 14.3 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 13.8 13.7 14.9 0.4 58.5 57.4 13.1 13.6 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 15.1 15.5 18.5 -0.4 45.1 44.1 15.3 15.9 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 9.1 8.9 14.5 0.0 52.1 50.5 8.4 8.8 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.4 16.2 -0.3 44.7 46.1 15.1 15.5 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.4 15.0 0.0 50.1 49.7 14.9 15.4 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.0 16.1 -0.2 47.5 47.9 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 13.5 13.3 15.3 -0.1 48.7 49.0 12.4 13.3 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.9 14.2 14.3 -0.1 46.9 48.3 13.4 14.6 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 15.3 16.0 16.2 -0.3 42.5 45.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 16.5 17.1 18.4 0.5 60.5 58.0 15.9 16.2 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.1 15.4 0.0 48.4 50.0 15.1 16.1 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 15.4 16.2 18.0 -0.5 41.9 43.0 15.8 16.3 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.9 13.6 14.1 0.1 52.6 50.9 12.9 13.5 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 14.9 15.6 18.3 -0.6 40.3 41.7 15.4 16.0 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.9 9.8 11.9 0.1 50.6 50.9 9.3 9.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 15.7 15.1 17.6 -0.4 42.4 44.7 14.2 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 14.4 15.1 18.0 -0.4 45.4 44.1 14.6 15.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 14.6 14.9 18.3 -0.5 42.3 43.2 14.6 15.4 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 14.8 15.7 16.1 -0.2 47.8 47.9 15.3 15.8 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 14.6 15.1 17.1 -0.3 44.1 46.2 14.6 15.6 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 15.1 15.1 14.4 0.1 51.4 51.7 14.0 14.9 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 14.7 15.1 17.7 -0.4 44.8 45.8 14.9 15.3 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.8 17.3 0.5 60.0 58.3 13.0 14.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.2 13.6 0.1 52.5 51.2 12.4 13.1 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 14.9 15.7 18.5 -0.6 42.2 42.7 15.4 16.1 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------