***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2020.-09.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 15.5 16.8 19.5 0.3 57.1 55.5 15.6 16.3 17.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 16.7 16.4 19.1 0.0 52.9 51.8 15.1 16.3 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.7 19.1 19.8 0.3 59.3 55.8 17.1 18.3 19.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 14.6 14.7 17.6 1.0 68.7 64.8 12.9 13.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 15.7 15.5 17.7 0.6 64.4 60.5 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 14.3 14.6 15.6 1.1 75.5 68.1 13.2 13.6 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.9 19.3 0.1 54.8 53.6 15.3 16.7 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 10.1 10.2 15.3 0.7 66.2 62.3 8.4 9.5 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 16.8 16.6 17.8 0.6 64.8 59.9 15.5 16.3 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 16.7 16.8 16.2 0.7 65.9 62.0 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 15.6 16.3 17.3 0.4 59.9 58.1 14.8 15.3 16.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 14.2 14.4 16.5 0.7 66.3 62.0 13.4 13.6 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 15.1 15.1 15.8 0.3 56.8 56.3 14.2 14.8 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 17.2 17.3 17.4 0.5 60.0 58.7 16.1 17.0 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 17.2 17.5 19.4 0.8 66.8 62.5 16.2 16.9 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 16.5 17.0 16.7 0.6 62.1 59.5 15.6 16.3 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 17.2 17.1 18.8 0.0 51.5 51.7 15.8 17.0 17.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 15.4 15.4 15.4 0.8 68.1 64.0 13.5 14.7 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 16.8 16.7 19.2 0.0 52.8 51.7 15.7 16.6 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 11.5 11.7 13.4 0.8 69.2 64.8 9.3 10.5 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 14.8 16.3 18.9 0.5 62.1 57.9 15.3 16.0 16.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.1 19.0 0.1 53.4 52.9 15.1 16.0 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 16.2 16.0 19.3 0.1 54.0 53.7 15.0 16.0 16.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 16.8 17.0 17.5 0.6 64.2 60.8 16.0 16.7 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 14.9 16.7 18.5 0.4 59.8 57.0 15.3 16.2 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 15.4 15.2 15.6 0.9 70.7 64.6 14.3 14.7 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 15.1 17.1 18.9 0.3 58.9 56.2 15.2 16.3 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 15.3 15.5 18.2 1.1 71.2 66.0 14.4 14.7 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 14.2 14.3 14.7 0.7 66.2 63.0 12.5 13.6 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 17.1 17.2 19.4 0.1 54.6 52.6 15.7 16.8 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------