***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2015.-23.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 22.9 40.0 19.8 74.5 48.5 37.1 31.9 42.8 50.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 24.2 39.0 23.3 76.0 45.1 39.9 20.0 43.1 60.5 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 20.4 30.8 20.5 72.9 47.0 37.4 24.3 32.1 57.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 25.0 39.0 21.9 65.6 45.2 36.0 27.4 40.4 49.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 13.7 23.6 22.5 67.0 47.0 36.4 17.3 24.6 34.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 19.8 32.9 31.3 71.0 42.2 35.9 27.0 36.8 47.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 23.1 38.2 23.3 79.3 46.6 41.9 26.8 39.6 48.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 34.9 48.9 31.4 76.1 48.3 37.3 30.8 51.0 73.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 18.2 30.6 21.9 64.4 40.8 34.3 26.3 31.4 55.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 26.8 40.4 30.2 70.5 43.9 35.9 29.1 44.4 61.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 23.4 38.3 21.3 73.6 50.1 38.4 22.0 38.3 47.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 16.7 31.4 21.8 73.6 48.0 36.2 21.8 32.0 47.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 14.2 28.4 23.9 70.6 40.9 34.2 21.2 31.8 42.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 29.2 41.3 30.8 67.9 40.4 34.3 36.8 47.9 70.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 16.7 31.8 19.0 61.3 48.9 34.9 15.1 32.1 37.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 15.6 28.4 20.7 68.0 43.6 34.5 15.6 32.4 43.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 29.6 40.7 22.7 75.1 46.1 39.8 31.6 44.7 53.6 30 Palic 37000G16 76 24 0 100 28.4 39.0 34.8 66.7 39.3 32.4 34.4 45.7 61.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 19.2 33.0 22.6 73.1 44.5 38.4 24.6 37.9 57.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 27.3 41.6 42.9 79.9 47.2 37.2 33.4 42.9 63.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 23.3 30.4 19.2 66.1 44.4 35.2 27.6 37.1 48.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 26.0 36.8 22.7 70.3 44.0 37.5 31.6 39.3 57.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 20.5 32.8 22.6 70.3 45.2 37.2 24.3 37.8 67.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 31.1 39.1 28.0 65.0 37.5 32.9 36.6 51.3 65.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 19.5 31.2 21.8 65.8 45.0 34.6 23.8 33.1 56.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 14.8 26.1 20.9 74.1 46.9 37.2 20.4 27.3 41.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 23.1 39.2 22.4 71.0 46.2 36.1 30.4 40.8 52.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 16.6 18.7 21.0 63.5 45.5 35.0 14.2 23.2 34.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 41.8 53.4 38.0 71.9 40.1 33.7 47.4 61.2 83.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 17.3 26.9 22.7 77.7 47.0 40.1 15.7 31.2 41.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------