***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2015.-23.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 4.2 7.6 3.5 69.3 63.0 46.4 0.1 1.8 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 2.0 9.6 5.5 75.9 67.7 46.4 1.2 5.6 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.3 13.0 4.8 74.8 64.3 46.7 1.6 7.7 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 1.1 5.5 4.4 56.4 63.9 43.0 0.2 2.7 8.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 0.3 4.6 5.5 73.0 68.5 44.1 0.0 0.6 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 3.0 3.0 6.5 56.9 63.2 44.0 0.0 0.7 4.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 2.1 13.0 5.3 79.3 67.5 48.0 0.9 5.9 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 1.8 11.3 8.4 85.7 66.5 47.5 1.3 3.9 10.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 0.3 9.3 6.0 82.4 69.6 44.7 0.0 0.8 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 0.9 9.5 8.1 82.4 65.8 46.4 0.0 1.9 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 0.4 3.6 5.1 68.6 66.1 45.0 0.1 0.9 3.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 0.5 7.0 5.4 73.5 68.1 45.7 0.0 1.2 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 0.0 3.1 4.9 62.3 62.8 44.2 0.0 0.0 3.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 11.3 14.4 8.3 75.3 63.7 47.9 3.6 8.3 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 0.3 1.0 2.7 39.4 56.7 40.4 0.0 0.7 2.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 0.4 2.3 4.1 55.8 63.6 43.1 0.0 0.9 2.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 1.9 10.3 5.5 72.6 68.9 48.1 0.4 4.4 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.4 9.3 9.1 75.2 59.2 46.7 0.3 4.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 0.9 12.3 5.3 71.2 67.3 45.5 1.0 2.3 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 7.6 10.5 11.1 86.6 62.8 48.1 0.3 2.3 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 0.5 5.3 4.5 73.8 64.7 44.5 0.4 1.2 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 3.4 14.6 5.9 70.8 68.0 47.3 0.5 8.2 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 1.9 13.3 5.3 67.1 65.2 47.3 1.6 4.5 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 9.6 11.7 7.3 71.9 59.9 46.5 1.2 5.8 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 0.8 3.0 4.1 54.8 58.9 42.2 0.0 1.8 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 1.7 3.0 4.4 80.5 67.7 47.2 0.0 0.2 2.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.2 9.1 3.9 58.7 59.1 43.3 1.3 6.9 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 0.3 1.9 3.8 48.7 61.6 42.7 0.0 0.8 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.0 14.3 9.9 78.2 60.9 47.5 0.9 8.6 16.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 1.9 11.7 5.1 78.4 67.3 47.0 0.4 5.2 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------