***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2015.-16.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 1.2 20.3 6.1 140.2 75.6 48.9 1.0 2.8 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 1.1 12.5 5.1 88.4 70.2 45.8 0.6 2.8 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 1.9 19.1 6.2 132.5 72.8 49.3 0.9 3.9 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 1.9 15.5 6.0 115.7 74.2 50.9 0.8 4.2 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 1.2 11.3 5.9 116.9 72.6 51.9 0.8 2.6 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 2.6 22.4 9.8 114.8 74.8 47.9 1.9 6.6 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 0.9 11.2 5.0 92.9 68.7 46.4 0.8 2.8 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 9.9 16.0 7.5 107.4 70.1 53.8 4.4 7.5 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.4 13.9 5.8 111.4 70.4 52.6 0.8 6.9 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.9 15.3 7.1 100.1 68.0 52.2 2.4 10.0 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.8 13.5 5.2 118.2 74.0 53.8 0.8 4.2 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 5.1 11.5 5.2 116.1 74.1 53.5 0.3 3.1 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 2.1 7.2 5.7 117.0 73.9 48.7 0.9 4.3 5.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 13.7 15.5 7.2 78.4 63.9 47.8 5.4 11.9 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 1.0 10.9 5.6 105.8 74.9 49.8 0.6 2.3 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 4.0 7.0 5.1 113.6 74.6 50.2 0.5 2.7 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 1.4 7.0 4.6 77.6 68.9 44.5 1.8 3.7 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.3 10.8 7.9 82.1 62.8 47.0 2.0 7.2 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 1.3 16.8 5.3 89.6 72.9 46.7 1.9 3.2 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.0 9.5 9.8 99.2 67.0 50.6 4.0 4.8 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.6 19.1 5.7 135.4 74.7 51.2 0.9 7.8 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 1.7 11.1 4.9 73.3 70.6 45.2 1.6 4.1 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 6.3 13.3 5.7 88.4 74.2 48.4 1.0 4.1 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.5 12.3 6.9 87.3 64.5 47.0 3.8 10.7 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 3.4 20.0 6.6 128.0 76.3 47.1 2.9 8.4 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 7.0 13.4 5.2 125.7 76.3 49.6 0.3 4.8 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 2.1 11.8 6.7 130.7 74.6 46.4 1.5 5.4 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 1.7 8.4 5.8 110.2 75.7 50.9 1.2 3.6 5.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 4.7 12.9 8.2 79.9 61.8 45.9 4.6 8.4 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 1.5 9.1 5.5 107.7 71.5 48.3 1.4 3.2 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------