***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2015.-09.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 13.1 13.0 3.6 69.5 65.9 44.8 3.8 11.3 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 2.2 19.9 5.6 87.3 65.5 38.9 2.4 6.3 20.3 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.4 12.2 4.1 71.4 64.4 42.3 2.0 5.2 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 3.3 23.1 5.8 85.9 66.1 42.0 6.2 9.3 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 3.1 12.8 5.5 77.1 65.3 41.6 3.2 7.5 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 2.6 11.3 8.5 83.1 59.8 40.1 0.2 6.8 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 4.1 14.2 5.3 83.6 61.9 39.1 1.7 11.2 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 7.1 22.0 8.7 97.0 66.2 43.2 10.3 15.5 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.9 11.8 5.0 63.8 60.7 39.4 5.2 9.8 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.4 18.5 8.3 88.5 63.9 42.6 5.8 10.3 20.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.8 21.8 5.6 98.8 69.8 45.7 3.4 8.8 18.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.6 16.8 5.8 95.0 69.4 44.2 3.3 7.8 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.1 6.4 6.6 87.9 63.3 42.4 0.5 4.4 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 4.8 14.6 8.1 86.1 66.0 40.5 1.6 10.3 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 2.9 16.0 5.3 94.3 68.3 41.2 4.0 8.2 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.0 10.6 5.7 87.6 65.8 40.6 2.9 6.6 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 3.3 24.4 5.8 96.1 65.7 41.4 2.9 8.3 25.0 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.9 17.9 10.4 88.5 64.5 40.3 6.0 10.4 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 2.1 24.1 5.6 92.6 67.8 40.0 1.2 5.8 20.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.4 19.0 12.9 108.1 68.6 43.9 4.5 10.8 18.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 4.0 11.9 3.8 61.6 62.7 39.4 0.9 9.5 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 2.4 14.4 6.3 97.6 68.5 39.8 2.7 6.7 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 2.1 13.5 5.8 99.8 71.2 44.4 2.3 4.6 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 5.6 17.1 7.5 77.8 62.8 38.7 7.1 13.0 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 4.9 14.3 4.9 78.1 62.1 42.3 2.1 10.4 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.7 10.3 4.7 86.6 64.4 46.4 1.0 5.1 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.3 4.3 69.9 60.3 42.9 3.5 7.8 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.3 11.8 5.7 86.6 67.7 38.1 3.0 6.4 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 8.2 28.1 11.6 98.6 66.7 40.1 6.3 15.8 28.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.0 11.5 4.9 79.4 64.1 41.4 1.4 4.6 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------