***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2015.-02.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 1.5 5.5 6.6 55.0 52.3 36.3 0.9 3.6 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.3 6.4 7.1 63.4 54.8 39.1 2.1 5.5 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 1.5 3.2 5.4 48.0 46.9 33.7 0.7 4.5 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 1.5 3.2 5.7 41.8 46.7 32.6 1.0 4.2 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 1.3 2.2 5.6 40.8 42.2 32.5 0.6 4.3 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 1.1 2.3 6.6 46.9 45.8 33.7 0.2 3.9 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 0.8 3.5 7.7 70.3 58.2 40.2 0.9 2.0 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 3.5 9.0 6.9 44.6 45.4 33.9 2.0 10.9 19.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 0.7 1.3 5.1 37.3 39.2 30.1 0.3 3.2 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 2.4 7.6 6.8 41.1 42.8 32.5 2.1 7.9 10.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 1.8 3.0 5.4 48.1 46.1 34.5 1.1 5.2 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 0.8 2.6 5.5 47.5 47.6 33.5 0.5 2.8 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 2.0 5.3 6.7 49.3 48.1 34.0 0.8 5.6 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 1.5 1.7 7.2 45.7 44.2 36.0 0.9 4.4 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 1.1 3.0 5.5 41.0 50.5 34.2 0.2 3.0 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 1.3 3.3 5.9 48.4 46.1 32.7 1.3 3.5 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 1.9 7.1 6.7 63.8 57.5 41.9 0.4 4.7 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 3.1 3.6 7.3 39.7 40.5 31.2 0.6 10.9 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 1.4 3.6 6.4 56.1 48.8 36.8 0.1 3.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.4 7.2 9.1 48.6 42.9 35.4 5.5 9.8 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 1.9 4.6 5.1 41.1 43.6 32.9 2.3 6.3 19.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 2.2 6.6 5.6 52.3 52.7 38.5 0.5 6.1 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 0.6 1.5 5.7 48.7 47.7 34.6 0.2 1.8 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 2.9 6.1 6.2 40.8 39.6 32.3 2.4 10.8 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 1.4 0.9 6.1 43.5 42.7 33.8 0.3 3.6 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 1.9 4.1 6.6 50.6 48.8 36.7 1.6 4.3 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 1.1 2.7 7.4 55.5 49.9 35.9 0.4 2.8 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 1.4 3.8 5.8 42.9 49.0 32.5 0.8 4.2 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 4.5 10.6 8.4 46.6 43.9 33.9 6.3 11.8 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 1.1 4.3 7.1 62.9 55.8 37.3 1.4 2.8 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------