***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2015.-23.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 31.1 31.8 32.4 2.5 89.7 82.8 28.5 29.0 30.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 30.4 31.5 32.4 2.2 87.1 78.5 28.1 29.0 30.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 30.6 31.4 32.1 2.2 86.1 79.3 28.4 29.2 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 24.0 24.9 30.4 2.1 84.1 79.4 21.0 22.5 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 31.5 32.6 30.5 2.2 85.4 80.0 28.6 29.6 31.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 30.4 30.7 28.3 2.4 86.5 83.8 27.0 28.7 29.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 30.1 31.1 32.3 2.3 87.5 79.8 27.9 28.9 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 19.2 20.2 29.1 2.8 91.1 85.7 16.6 17.9 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 30.9 31.8 31.0 2.5 89.3 82.0 28.5 29.0 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 31.0 31.8 29.6 2.6 89.9 83.5 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 30.9 32.0 30.1 2.4 86.6 82.0 28.1 29.2 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 30.4 31.5 30.4 2.9 90.6 86.2 27.4 28.5 29.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 31.6 32.1 29.9 2.6 87.5 84.9 27.9 29.9 31.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 30.4 31.5 30.2 2.3 87.0 79.7 27.6 28.9 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 31.6 32.3 31.6 2.4 86.6 82.6 29.3 30.1 31.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 32.3 33.0 30.1 2.3 85.2 81.9 28.7 30.7 31.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 29.7 30.5 31.5 1.8 81.1 73.6 27.5 28.3 29.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 29.8 30.5 28.8 2.6 88.3 83.2 26.7 28.0 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 30.1 31.3 32.4 2.3 87.5 79.3 27.9 28.4 29.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 25.7 26.8 26.7 2.5 89.5 83.9 22.6 24.1 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 30.9 31.9 31.8 2.3 87.2 80.9 28.3 29.3 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 30.1 30.7 31.3 1.7 78.1 73.2 28.0 28.8 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 30.3 31.1 32.2 2.6 89.3 81.5 27.9 28.7 30.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 30.3 31.1 30.3 2.4 86.4 81.0 27.8 28.4 29.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 31.1 32.1 30.9 2.5 89.0 82.7 28.4 29.3 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 31.1 32.2 30.1 2.8 91.0 86.9 27.6 29.6 30.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 30.6 31.4 31.6 2.6 89.9 83.6 28.0 28.9 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 31.8 32.3 30.9 2.1 83.9 79.6 29.0 30.0 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 25.3 26.0 27.8 2.6 89.1 83.5 21.7 23.9 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 30.3 31.4 32.5 2.4 88.2 80.1 28.2 28.7 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------