***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2015.-23.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 31.4 31.4 31.4 1.9 72.4 67.4 28.2 30.0 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 30.7 30.7 31.5 1.8 69.9 65.9 28.0 29.3 30.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 30.7 31.0 31.2 1.7 71.8 65.3 27.7 29.4 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 24.4 23.9 29.5 1.4 66.7 63.9 21.3 23.1 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 31.7 31.9 29.4 1.5 69.7 64.3 28.8 30.4 31.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 29.7 30.7 27.4 1.7 71.3 67.1 27.1 29.5 30.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 30.3 30.4 31.4 1.9 69.7 66.2 27.6 29.0 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 19.6 19.9 28.1 2.1 76.3 68.0 15.9 18.8 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 30.8 31.0 29.8 1.8 73.5 66.0 27.9 29.7 30.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 30.8 31.1 28.6 1.9 75.9 66.7 27.1 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 31.2 31.8 29.1 1.7 73.6 65.6 28.0 29.9 31.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 30.8 31.4 29.4 2.1 76.2 68.5 26.8 29.6 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 31.6 31.8 28.8 1.9 74.4 67.3 28.2 30.7 31.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 30.1 30.3 29.3 2.0 74.0 66.6 27.0 29.5 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 31.6 31.7 30.2 1.7 70.0 66.3 28.4 30.3 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 32.3 32.6 29.0 1.6 72.0 65.3 28.9 31.5 32.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 28.7 29.5 30.8 1.5 67.4 63.5 27.6 28.4 29.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 29.6 30.1 27.8 2.1 76.8 67.4 26.1 28.6 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 30.4 30.0 31.5 1.9 71.4 66.2 27.4 29.0 29.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 26.3 26.3 25.7 1.9 74.6 66.5 21.8 25.1 26.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 30.8 31.1 30.6 1.7 71.9 65.4 27.6 29.3 31.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 29.1 30.0 30.6 1.5 67.5 63.8 27.8 28.6 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 30.2 30.5 31.2 2.1 74.7 67.1 27.3 29.0 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 30.2 30.2 29.4 2.0 74.8 66.8 26.8 29.0 29.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 31.0 31.2 29.7 1.8 72.2 66.8 27.7 29.9 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 31.2 31.6 29.0 1.9 73.9 68.1 27.9 30.3 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 30.6 31.0 30.6 2.0 73.6 68.1 27.6 29.2 30.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 31.7 32.0 29.8 1.4 68.0 64.3 28.8 30.4 31.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 25.3 25.7 26.8 2.0 75.7 67.2 21.3 24.3 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 30.8 30.8 31.6 1.9 70.1 66.2 27.8 29.1 30.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------