***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2015.-16.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 30.9 32.1 32.6 2.5 81.9 73.1 28.0 29.1 30.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 30.6 31.6 32.7 2.3 81.2 71.1 28.4 29.2 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 30.8 31.5 32.3 2.1 77.4 70.4 28.2 29.0 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 22.2 24.2 30.4 1.8 70.5 67.0 20.5 21.5 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 31.7 33.0 30.4 1.9 73.7 67.9 28.6 29.3 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 30.2 31.6 28.2 1.9 77.7 70.5 26.7 27.9 29.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 30.0 31.2 32.6 2.4 83.4 72.0 28.1 28.9 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 19.3 20.7 29.0 2.3 80.8 71.9 16.4 17.1 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 31.1 32.3 30.8 2.2 79.0 70.4 27.7 28.9 29.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 30.9 31.9 29.5 2.2 78.7 70.5 27.6 28.5 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 31.3 32.5 30.0 2.0 76.2 68.8 27.9 29.0 30.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 30.7 32.2 30.3 2.4 82.6 72.9 27.0 28.0 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 31.7 33.3 29.6 2.2 81.4 72.0 28.1 28.9 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 30.5 31.7 30.4 2.3 80.9 70.6 27.7 28.8 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 31.1 31.9 31.2 2.0 75.6 69.4 28.8 29.3 30.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 32.7 33.8 29.8 1.9 74.7 68.6 28.7 30.1 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 29.7 30.4 32.0 2.1 78.4 69.2 27.7 28.6 29.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 29.7 30.5 28.8 2.3 79.7 70.9 26.4 27.7 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 30.3 31.3 32.7 2.3 80.6 71.0 27.6 28.7 30.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 26.1 27.2 26.6 2.0 78.4 69.1 22.3 23.5 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 30.9 31.9 31.7 2.1 78.3 70.4 28.2 28.8 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 30.3 31.0 31.8 2.0 78.9 67.9 28.4 29.1 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 30.4 31.5 32.4 2.5 81.5 71.8 28.2 28.7 30.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 30.1 30.9 30.4 2.3 78.8 71.1 27.4 28.4 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 31.0 32.6 30.8 2.3 80.0 71.8 28.2 29.0 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 31.6 32.7 30.0 2.2 79.6 72.8 27.8 28.9 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 30.4 31.9 31.7 2.6 83.7 73.5 27.8 28.8 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 29.8 32.0 30.7 1.8 70.6 66.9 28.3 29.2 30.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 25.5 26.5 27.8 2.3 80.7 70.4 22.0 23.2 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 30.5 31.5 32.8 2.4 80.5 71.5 27.7 29.2 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------