***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2015.-09.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 31.9 32.6 32.8 2.6 80.2 74.8 28.0 29.1 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 31.3 32.0 33.0 2.5 80.8 72.6 28.4 29.2 30.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 31.7 32.3 32.5 2.2 76.7 70.9 27.8 28.7 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 24.5 24.7 30.5 1.7 73.5 70.0 20.8 22.2 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 32.3 32.6 30.5 1.9 74.2 70.5 28.5 29.4 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 30.0 30.2 28.0 1.7 76.1 71.5 27.0 28.8 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 31.1 31.8 33.0 2.6 80.5 73.7 28.0 28.8 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 19.3 20.2 29.2 2.5 81.8 75.7 17.2 17.7 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 31.4 32.2 31.0 2.2 78.0 72.4 28.0 28.6 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 30.8 31.4 29.6 2.3 78.4 73.3 27.6 28.6 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 31.5 32.2 30.0 2.0 76.4 72.3 28.2 28.9 30.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 30.0 31.0 30.4 2.5 82.5 76.6 27.3 28.5 30.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 31.5 32.1 29.6 2.2 80.5 74.8 28.6 29.7 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 31.0 31.5 30.6 2.3 80.6 72.0 27.6 28.3 30.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 31.9 32.2 31.2 2.0 77.0 73.0 29.2 30.3 31.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 32.4 32.9 29.8 1.8 75.5 71.3 29.1 30.3 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 30.6 31.2 32.3 2.2 78.0 70.2 27.7 28.3 29.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 30.0 30.6 29.0 2.4 77.8 73.1 26.6 27.4 28.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 30.8 31.7 33.0 2.5 80.7 72.5 27.5 28.6 30.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 25.9 26.4 26.9 2.2 79.9 73.9 23.0 23.9 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 31.5 31.8 31.8 2.2 76.6 71.8 27.8 29.1 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 31.1 31.4 32.0 2.0 75.9 69.0 28.0 29.0 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 31.6 32.2 32.6 2.6 81.9 73.3 27.7 28.3 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 30.6 31.2 30.6 2.3 77.2 72.1 27.3 28.1 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 31.7 32.8 31.0 2.4 80.2 74.5 28.0 29.6 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 31.5 32.1 30.1 2.4 84.4 77.1 28.0 29.6 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 14 86 100 31.3 32.2 32.0 2.7 81.5 75.9 28.0 28.7 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 31.7 31.9 30.7 1.7 73.3 69.7 29.1 30.3 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 25.6 26.3 28.0 2.4 78.9 73.3 22.4 23.1 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 31.3 32.1 33.1 2.5 79.2 72.9 27.8 28.8 30.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------