***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2015.-02.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 12 88 100 31.5 32.0 32.7 3.2 88.3 82.6 28.7 29.6 31.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 31.0 31.5 32.2 2.2 73.4 71.9 28.1 29.6 31.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 31.3 32.1 32.5 2.8 83.4 77.3 27.8 29.6 30.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 24.7 25.5 31.1 3.6 87.9 83.7 20.4 22.7 24.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 31.9 33.0 31.6 3.6 87.4 82.8 27.7 30.0 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 4 96 100 30.7 31.6 29.7 4.1 89.5 85.7 26.2 28.6 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 31.1 31.7 32.3 2.4 79.8 74.7 27.9 29.9 30.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 9 91 100 19.7 21.3 30.2 4.4 90.8 87.6 16.1 17.2 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 12 88 100 31.5 32.3 32.4 3.7 89.3 84.2 27.3 29.5 31.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 31.3 32.5 30.8 4.1 91.0 85.8 27.1 28.9 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 16 84 100 31.6 32.9 31.4 3.8 89.5 84.3 26.9 29.4 31.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 7 93 100 30.8 31.9 31.4 4.5 90.5 87.8 26.4 28.6 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 32.0 33.0 31.5 4.4 89.1 86.8 27.5 29.7 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 30.8 31.5 30.4 2.5 77.0 74.2 27.1 29.2 30.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 3 97 100 32.6 33.1 33.8 4.1 89.6 88.2 28.4 30.3 32.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 9 91 100 32.6 34.1 31.6 4.0 89.4 84.9 27.7 30.3 32.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 30.4 30.3 30.9 1.3 63.6 63.5 27.5 29.6 30.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 30.1 31.3 29.5 3.8 90.0 83.7 26.0 28.0 29.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 30.8 31.4 32.3 2.5 77.3 74.0 27.5 29.3 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 14 86 100 25.8 26.5 27.8 4.0 88.7 85.0 22.0 23.9 25.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 31.5 32.3 32.9 3.4 85.1 81.6 27.6 29.5 31.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 30.2 30.6 30.7 1.3 65.0 62.9 28.0 29.9 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 30.8 32.0 32.5 3.1 85.6 79.0 27.3 28.9 30.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 30.8 31.6 30.9 3.1 83.2 79.0 26.7 29.0 30.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 32.1 32.7 31.8 3.5 87.7 83.6 28.1 30.5 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 31.3 32.2 31.3 4.6 90.3 88.7 27.0 29.3 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 31.4 32.2 32.1 3.3 87.7 83.0 27.5 29.5 30.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 12 88 100 32.1 33.1 32.3 3.7 88.1 84.3 27.9 30.4 32.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 25.5 26.5 28.7 3.8 89.3 83.6 21.2 23.7 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 31.2 32.1 32.6 2.6 81.9 75.8 27.8 29.7 30.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------