***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2015.-23.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 11 89 100 16.6 17.0 20.8 1.8 92.7 84.6 15.5 16.0 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 16.5 16.9 20.4 1.3 86.3 76.3 15.3 15.9 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 18.9 19.2 20.4 1.4 86.6 78.8 17.5 18.1 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 14.6 15.1 18.3 1.3 80.7 77.9 12.7 13.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 15.0 15.4 18.0 1.3 84.1 78.5 13.8 14.2 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 13 87 100 14.0 14.4 16.2 1.3 86.5 82.1 12.8 13.2 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 16.7 17.1 20.6 1.5 87.2 80.2 15.5 16.2 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 9.8 10.5 16.3 1.7 92.7 85.5 8.6 9.0 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 16.0 16.8 18.6 1.6 88.9 82.9 15.1 15.4 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 15.9 16.7 16.8 1.5 90.7 82.6 15.2 15.5 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 15.7 16.0 17.5 1.3 86.0 79.4 14.6 14.9 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 13.9 14.6 17.4 1.7 91.1 85.0 12.8 13.1 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 15.0 15.5 16.6 1.3 86.6 81.6 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 16.6 16.9 18.3 1.3 87.0 78.5 16.0 16.0 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 17.4 17.9 19.7 1.6 87.4 83.0 16.2 16.5 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 16.5 16.8 17.3 1.2 83.7 78.8 15.2 16.0 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 16.8 17.2 19.5 0.9 80.2 70.0 16.1 16.4 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 14.4 15.0 16.1 1.4 88.9 80.4 13.3 13.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 16.4 16.7 20.4 1.4 87.0 77.8 15.6 15.7 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 10.4 10.6 14.1 1.2 86.0 80.0 9.2 9.9 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 15.8 16.4 19.9 1.6 91.0 82.2 15.1 15.3 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 15.7 15.8 19.5 1.0 79.3 70.9 14.9 15.5 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 15.6 16.1 20.3 1.6 89.1 81.6 15.0 15.1 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 16.4 16.6 18.2 1.4 88.1 79.5 15.6 16.0 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 16.1 16.6 19.3 1.7 90.8 84.7 15.3 15.7 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 15.1 15.5 16.9 1.6 89.6 84.9 14.0 14.5 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 10 90 100 16.8 17.2 20.0 1.9 92.1 85.5 15.6 15.8 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 15.0 15.6 18.8 1.3 82.0 78.4 13.9 14.1 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 14.0 14.5 15.4 1.3 88.4 80.6 12.6 13.1 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 16.8 17.1 20.8 1.5 88.0 79.5 15.7 16.1 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------