***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2015.-23.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 16.4 16.6 19.9 1.4 72.6 67.6 14.7 15.5 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 15.6 16.6 19.8 1.1 69.7 64.2 14.3 15.3 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 18.3 18.6 19.6 1.0 66.8 63.5 17.1 18.0 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 13.6 14.3 17.3 0.7 62.1 61.2 12.3 13.2 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 13.9 14.1 16.9 0.8 66.1 62.2 12.8 13.6 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 13.2 13.8 15.2 0.8 69.2 64.4 12.4 13.1 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 16.6 16.5 19.9 1.2 69.9 65.3 14.8 15.5 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 8.8 9.7 15.3 1.2 72.6 68.1 7.5 8.6 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 15.3 15.8 17.3 1.1 68.7 65.8 13.7 15.1 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 15.2 15.6 15.7 1.0 69.8 65.2 14.1 15.0 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 14.7 14.9 16.4 0.8 66.8 62.6 13.5 14.5 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 44 56 100 13.3 13.6 16.4 1.2 75.2 68.9 11.7 13.0 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 14.3 14.7 15.5 0.9 72.4 66.1 12.7 13.5 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 16.3 16.3 17.4 1.0 70.6 64.9 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 16.5 17.0 18.2 0.9 64.5 63.3 14.8 16.3 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 15.6 16.0 16.2 0.7 66.1 62.4 14.3 15.4 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 16.1 16.5 18.9 0.8 67.7 61.6 15.2 15.8 16.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 13.1 13.9 15.1 1.0 70.6 65.2 12.1 12.8 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 15.6 16.5 19.7 1.1 69.8 64.3 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 9.4 9.6 13.2 0.9 68.9 63.5 8.4 9.2 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 15.5 15.6 18.8 1.2 70.0 65.8 13.5 14.4 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 14.8 15.9 18.9 0.9 69.9 61.9 13.9 14.5 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 15.5 15.6 19.3 1.2 71.4 65.8 13.7 14.6 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 15.8 16.0 17.2 1.0 69.8 65.2 14.1 15.0 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 15.8 16.3 18.2 1.3 71.6 67.2 14.2 14.6 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 14.6 14.8 16.0 1.2 74.4 69.3 13.4 14.1 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 17.0 17.1 19.1 1.4 73.6 68.2 14.3 15.9 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 13.9 14.2 17.6 0.7 61.7 60.8 12.6 13.7 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 13.9 14.2 14.4 1.0 70.5 65.1 12.0 13.0 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 16.7 17.0 20.0 1.2 68.9 64.8 14.7 15.4 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------