***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2015.-16.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 16.4 16.6 20.8 1.8 79.2 74.1 15.3 15.8 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 16.1 16.5 20.7 1.6 76.5 70.6 15.0 15.4 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 18.8 19.0 20.4 1.4 73.7 69.7 17.2 18.2 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 14.3 14.7 18.2 1.2 73.4 67.3 12.9 13.2 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 15.1 15.5 17.8 1.2 72.4 67.7 13.4 14.3 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 14.0 14.2 16.0 1.1 73.4 66.9 13.1 13.6 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 16.4 16.6 20.8 1.7 80.5 72.1 15.3 15.9 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 9.8 10.3 16.2 1.5 78.4 73.3 8.4 8.8 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 16.3 16.4 18.2 1.4 73.7 70.3 15.1 15.5 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 16.3 16.6 16.6 1.4 72.9 70.3 14.9 15.4 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 16.0 16.3 17.4 1.3 76.6 69.2 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 14.0 14.3 17.3 1.6 81.7 73.7 12.4 13.3 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 15.2 15.6 16.3 1.2 77.4 68.8 13.4 14.6 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 16.7 16.8 18.3 1.4 73.8 70.0 15.5 16.1 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 17.2 17.7 19.2 1.4 77.5 70.4 15.9 16.2 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 16.7 16.6 17.0 1.1 72.6 66.3 15.1 16.1 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 16.9 17.1 19.8 1.3 75.5 67.2 15.8 16.3 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 14.5 14.9 16.1 1.3 72.7 70.0 12.9 13.5 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 16.4 16.6 20.6 1.5 75.6 70.7 15.4 16.0 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 10.3 10.4 14.1 1.1 70.8 68.4 9.3 9.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 16.2 16.2 19.6 1.4 72.7 70.4 14.2 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 15.8 16.0 19.8 1.2 73.3 66.6 14.6 15.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 15.9 16.2 20.3 1.6 76.1 72.4 14.6 15.4 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 16.4 16.7 18.1 1.4 73.3 69.9 15.3 15.8 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 16.2 16.6 19.1 1.7 79.5 74.6 14.6 15.6 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 15.3 15.5 16.7 1.3 78.5 70.5 14.0 14.9 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 16.2 17.0 20.0 1.9 82.9 75.8 14.9 15.3 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 15.0 15.1 18.6 1.1 71.8 65.9 13.0 14.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 13.9 14.4 15.4 1.4 75.0 70.2 12.4 13.1 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 16.7 17.1 21.0 1.6 77.0 71.7 15.4 16.1 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------