***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2015.-09.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 17.4 17.8 21.1 1.9 82.1 74.7 15.6 16.3 17.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 17.4 17.9 20.9 1.5 77.8 71.1 15.1 16.3 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 19.3 19.8 20.7 1.4 75.4 70.9 17.1 18.3 19.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 14.6 14.7 18.2 0.9 68.8 66.7 12.9 13.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 15.7 15.8 17.8 1.0 68.6 67.3 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 14.2 14.1 16.0 0.8 71.4 67.3 13.2 13.6 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 17.3 17.7 21.0 1.6 78.2 71.7 15.3 16.7 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 10.2 10.9 16.5 1.7 84.2 77.8 8.4 9.5 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 16.8 17.0 18.4 1.3 75.6 70.5 15.5 16.3 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 16.7 17.1 16.9 1.4 78.7 73.9 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 16.2 16.6 17.4 1.1 72.3 69.5 14.8 15.3 16.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 14.3 14.7 17.4 1.4 80.1 74.5 13.4 13.6 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 15.6 15.4 16.2 0.8 71.6 66.1 14.2 14.8 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 17.6 17.9 18.4 1.3 75.1 70.9 16.1 17.0 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 17.9 18.1 19.3 1.2 74.8 69.9 16.2 16.9 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 16.9 17.0 16.9 0.7 68.3 64.3 15.6 16.3 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 17.7 18.0 20.0 1.1 72.1 66.2 15.8 17.0 17.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 15.4 15.8 16.2 1.3 78.1 72.7 13.5 14.7 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 17.2 17.5 20.8 1.5 78.1 72.0 15.7 16.6 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 11.6 12.0 14.4 1.2 75.6 72.2 9.3 10.5 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 16.7 17.0 19.9 1.5 75.1 71.5 15.3 16.0 16.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 16.7 16.6 19.8 1.0 71.8 64.9 15.1 16.0 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 16.8 17.1 20.5 1.6 80.1 74.2 15.0 16.0 16.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 17.2 17.4 18.3 1.3 77.7 72.0 16.0 16.7 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 17.2 17.6 19.4 1.6 77.9 73.7 15.3 16.2 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 15.5 15.8 16.8 1.2 77.5 72.2 14.3 14.7 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 17.6 18.2 20.2 1.9 82.4 75.4 15.2 16.3 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 15.4 15.4 18.6 0.9 70.6 66.3 14.4 14.7 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 14.2 14.5 15.5 1.3 77.0 72.5 12.5 13.6 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 17.5 17.9 21.2 1.6 78.0 72.2 15.7 16.8 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------