***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2015.-02.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 16.5 17.3 21.3 2.2 84.9 80.7 14.8 15.2 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 16.5 16.7 20.1 1.0 69.9 66.2 15.0 15.7 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 18.8 19.5 21.1 1.8 81.9 77.4 16.9 17.5 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 14.8 15.6 19.3 2.3 87.3 84.0 12.5 13.4 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 15.6 16.0 19.5 2.3 87.4 84.7 13.7 14.4 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 14.5 15.8 17.6 2.6 91.6 89.7 12.8 13.8 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 17.1 17.5 20.8 1.6 77.9 74.7 15.4 16.1 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 6 94 100 10.0 10.7 17.3 2.3 88.5 86.6 8.2 9.0 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 7 93 100 16.6 17.7 20.3 2.5 93.0 87.2 14.9 15.5 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 16.5 17.3 18.2 2.3 90.0 86.0 15.1 15.7 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 13 87 100 16.3 16.9 18.9 2.2 86.5 84.7 14.7 15.1 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 14.8 15.0 18.4 2.5 88.4 87.3 12.6 13.6 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 6 94 100 15.7 16.6 18.3 2.4 90.9 88.5 14.1 14.6 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 16.9 17.3 19.0 1.4 79.3 74.7 15.4 16.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 5 95 100 18.2 19.2 21.9 3.0 91.9 90.8 16.1 17.5 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 17.0 17.4 19.0 2.4 89.3 87.4 15.3 16.0 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.8 17.3 19.1 0.5 64.0 58.7 16.0 16.4 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 15.0 15.7 16.9 1.8 84.4 81.2 13.5 14.1 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 16.6 16.9 20.4 1.4 74.7 70.8 14.7 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 11.1 11.7 14.6 1.7 84.0 81.0 9.5 10.4 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 16.3 17.3 21.3 2.3 87.6 83.0 14.8 15.6 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 15.8 15.7 19.6 0.8 65.7 62.9 14.4 15.6 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 16.1 16.6 21.0 2.0 84.7 79.9 14.5 15.1 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 16.7 17.1 19.1 1.8 82.1 79.2 15.5 16.1 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 16.5 17.5 20.5 2.3 85.9 82.8 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 15.7 16.6 17.9 2.8 95.0 90.6 14.2 14.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 16.7 17.4 20.7 2.2 85.8 81.6 14.1 15.3 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 15.7 16.5 20.4 2.6 88.8 87.2 14.4 14.6 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 14.2 14.6 16.1 1.7 84.6 81.2 12.4 13.3 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 16.9 17.4 21.0 1.6 77.7 74.1 15.1 15.7 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------