***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.07.2021.-22.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 24.3 41.3 31.8 78.8 49.3 42.7 27.2 43.0 51.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 29.1 44.8 34.0 85.4 50.8 46.6 24.0 44.4 65.2 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 26.7 31.8 31.4 71.9 45.3 40.5 23.0 39.6 68.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 28.3 39.6 28.4 65.8 44.6 36.8 27.4 43.6 57.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 14.6 23.1 27.1 64.9 43.9 36.4 18.5 24.9 34.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 16.3 28.6 29.4 60.9 38.0 31.5 27.7 37.2 52.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 44.9 39.6 34.6 88.2 52.9 48.4 29.7 38.9 50.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 32.8 45.8 31.2 62.5 39.3 34.5 37.3 55.9 72.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 24.6 31.4 29.1 65.6 43.4 37.6 28.8 42.3 60.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 31.1 34.1 34.0 64.9 40.2 36.3 30.3 48.3 67.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 24.9 34.3 25.4 63.3 43.3 34.9 21.7 41.1 49.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 18.9 30.8 22.8 59.3 41.2 32.7 24.7 34.8 50.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 15.0 29.4 23.2 58.4 41.6 31.4 20.8 32.8 38.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 63.1 48.4 43.5 76.0 45.0 41.9 36.7 52.3 70.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 19.3 19.7 21.2 59.1 44.0 35.7 15.0 32.9 37.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 15.8 29.4 24.0 62.0 44.4 33.2 18.8 33.2 43.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 50.5 46.3 37.0 92.6 52.1 49.5 30.3 45.8 55.3 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 29.8 36.4 38.2 64.0 36.3 34.3 32.5 43.9 64.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 28.5 42.5 33.9 82.1 48.8 45.1 26.7 45.8 76.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 23.1 31.5 37.4 62.1 33.2 31.3 31.4 42.7 69.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 29.5 34.7 28.6 67.1 44.0 38.6 29.1 42.4 53.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 48.4 42.8 38.1 90.4 52.4 48.8 29.8 39.3 56.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 50.7 40.8 34.9 79.0 47.4 43.7 25.8 41.5 62.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 36.6 41.3 36.2 67.7 40.3 37.7 37.7 53.6 65.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 25.5 38.9 33.8 77.7 49.9 40.0 27.0 39.1 56.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 15.3 23.1 19.0 56.7 37.6 31.0 20.6 26.0 42.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 25.0 44.3 34.9 80.9 51.2 41.5 30.8 42.5 50.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 17.3 20.3 24.9 60.4 43.0 35.4 16.2 24.0 34.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 42.2 46.8 40.7 65.5 35.4 34.1 46.3 61.4 78.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 19.8 33.4 32.3 79.0 50.3 43.9 14.4 33.3 56.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------