***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.08.2021.-22.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 3.5 7.4 4.3 53.0 51.8 41.8 1.3 7.4 10.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 1.7 6.3 4.1 48.1 53.5 39.4 1.1 4.1 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.1 7.5 5.0 54.8 52.6 42.3 2.5 6.6 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 1.9 6.6 5.8 74.2 63.6 43.4 0.4 4.0 7.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 0.3 1.5 5.6 72.9 62.1 43.5 0.0 0.7 3.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 0.5 4.4 7.9 79.1 64.1 44.4 0.2 1.0 4.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.4 6.2 4.1 49.2 53.4 40.4 1.0 5.1 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 1.6 5.9 7.0 73.6 61.1 45.5 0.2 3.5 7.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 0.3 2.7 5.6 63.5 57.1 42.2 0.0 0.7 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 0.5 4.9 7.3 70.1 59.3 44.5 0.0 1.0 7.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 0.2 2.9 5.6 78.3 64.4 44.7 0.0 0.4 3.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 0.1 5.9 5.3 72.8 65.2 44.8 0.0 0.3 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 2.3 2.9 6.1 79.0 67.4 45.3 0.0 0.1 2.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 3.9 12.7 7.9 62.5 53.4 41.2 2.2 9.1 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 0.3 2.5 4.4 70.0 66.7 45.7 0.0 0.6 2.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 0.3 2.4 5.7 80.8 67.7 44.6 0.1 0.6 2.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 1.7 7.3 5.2 62.2 58.5 42.9 0.4 3.8 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 1.3 4.7 7.7 62.7 53.9 42.0 0.2 2.9 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.1 6.4 4.3 49.8 53.7 40.0 1.6 5.0 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 1.7 5.9 9.2 77.9 57.1 45.5 0.3 3.5 11.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 0.8 2.7 5.1 63.1 56.5 42.1 0.6 1.8 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.1 11.4 5.9 64.9 58.5 42.5 0.5 9.4 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 2.5 6.7 4.9 53.6 54.5 40.3 1.6 5.9 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 1.6 4.4 6.5 56.4 51.6 39.9 0.8 3.8 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 0.9 4.3 5.7 70.1 59.6 43.5 0.2 1.8 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 2.0 4.4 5.7 88.8 71.5 47.4 0.0 0.0 2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.7 7.9 4.7 55.8 53.9 41.0 3.3 7.8 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 3.4 3.3 5.4 74.1 65.2 45.6 0.0 0.8 3.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 2.0 6.2 8.3 65.2 52.6 41.6 0.3 4.7 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.1 4.9 3.9 44.5 51.9 40.2 1.6 4.9 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------