***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.08.2021.-15.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 7.3 16.6 7.5 98.2 67.3 54.2 0.4 3.3 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.2 12.7 7.8 98.7 65.7 48.9 1.7 5.0 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 2.5 13.5 6.8 88.2 64.3 48.9 1.2 5.3 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 2.7 18.4 7.1 93.0 67.9 43.9 1.8 6.9 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 1.3 14.2 7.1 104.0 71.1 45.9 1.1 2.9 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.3 20.8 7.6 87.1 66.7 45.7 2.9 7.8 20.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 2.2 11.7 8.4 104.6 67.3 49.6 0.7 5.3 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 5.2 12.9 6.9 86.9 65.4 45.2 4.0 9.6 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 3.9 14.1 7.2 90.4 65.6 43.3 2.2 10.3 14.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.6 17.3 7.7 88.0 64.2 44.8 8.9 11.9 18.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.3 17.0 6.1 105.5 72.3 45.3 3.3 7.4 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.2 14.0 5.6 95.1 70.1 47.0 2.8 6.4 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 1.7 12.7 6.2 91.4 70.8 44.7 2.9 4.8 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 4.6 12.8 8.7 80.5 56.7 43.4 7.3 11.9 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.3 11.9 5.8 99.9 71.0 44.5 0.2 5.9 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 2.2 13.3 5.7 93.1 70.3 43.5 1.1 6.2 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 2.5 10.0 8.2 100.6 65.4 49.1 3.0 5.4 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.5 11.9 8.4 76.5 56.9 42.6 4.8 9.5 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 1.4 10.6 7.2 90.7 64.3 48.3 1.8 3.3 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 3.6 6.9 8.5 77.3 55.4 44.4 4.0 6.3 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.9 14.6 6.8 87.6 66.5 45.5 1.1 9.2 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.3 9.8 7.7 91.0 64.0 49.8 2.6 4.4 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 1.4 5.3 6.6 80.4 60.0 45.8 0.8 3.2 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 5.8 16.8 7.6 76.5 57.1 41.6 6.8 14.3 20.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.4 20.6 8.4 99.9 70.2 48.0 1.4 7.5 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 2.6 17.1 5.0 95.7 73.2 46.8 0.8 6.3 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 7.9 10.0 8.6 103.8 67.9 50.6 2.0 5.1 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.2 13.0 6.1 87.9 67.0 44.6 1.2 4.9 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 4.7 13.1 9.2 78.0 55.9 42.0 4.8 11.8 17.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.0 6.2 7.9 100.3 67.9 51.6 1.6 4.1 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------