***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.08.2021.-08.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 5.8 12.6 11.7 127.9 72.7 60.9 2.9 4.5 11.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 8.5 19.9 12.8 133.3 75.4 65.3 1.8 5.9 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 7.5 12.7 11.7 111.1 71.2 59.3 3.1 5.7 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.9 18.0 9.5 95.2 68.8 52.4 3.4 8.4 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.5 12.9 9.2 93.8 66.6 53.5 2.1 6.8 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 1.9 8.6 9.3 82.2 59.5 46.5 0.4 3.8 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 11.8 19.7 11.9 130.5 73.5 62.5 1.3 9.4 18.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 18.0 21.1 10.0 100.0 64.3 54.8 5.0 13.1 21.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.6 12.8 9.6 92.1 64.0 53.5 1.1 5.6 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 13.6 26.7 10.9 101.1 66.3 56.3 4.8 8.1 26.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.2 18.2 9.1 95.1 62.8 51.7 0.7 7.5 18.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.0 12.1 7.8 92.4 63.4 52.1 1.1 5.6 17.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 6.1 8.1 8.5 96.3 67.9 51.9 0.1 1.5 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 14.5 13.9 15.7 119.1 71.7 62.8 2.1 5.8 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 8.6 12.8 7.8 95.5 68.6 51.2 0.6 5.8 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.8 10.4 8.3 92.3 66.5 51.3 0.8 5.6 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 20.6 29.6 13.6 138.1 75.5 66.2 2.9 6.1 22.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.7 16.7 12.9 99.7 66.4 56.7 6.2 12.1 16.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 8.8 24.7 12.9 129.1 74.7 64.5 0.6 4.9 18.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.7 16.8 12.2 98.9 62.7 53.2 6.7 10.3 17.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 8.6 13.2 9.7 98.0 66.7 55.2 0.5 6.5 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 13.8 18.1 14.9 140.7 76.3 67.1 2.6 6.6 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 15.2 15.8 12.7 120.0 73.7 60.8 1.8 4.1 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 16.1 19.9 12.8 99.9 67.2 57.3 6.6 12.9 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 9.1 15.8 12.3 118.6 71.8 58.6 1.7 6.6 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 0.8 4.5 6.4 71.8 54.6 42.4 0.3 1.8 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 8.0 11.9 12.9 125.2 71.6 59.6 3.4 6.6 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.1 10.9 8.6 96.7 69.0 52.0 0.1 3.7 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 18.5 24.4 14.3 99.2 63.8 54.6 9.5 16.0 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 7.2 13.3 11.9 123.4 73.2 63.8 1.5 5.7 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------