***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.07.2021.-01.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 1.8 3.5 8.3 54.2 48.4 41.1 0.2 3.6 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 10.1 7.3 9.4 67.5 52.1 45.9 2.8 6.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.4 5.1 7.9 48.7 47.2 41.4 1.2 5.7 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 1.7 2.1 5.9 33.5 40.2 31.7 1.4 5.0 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 1.7 1.3 5.3 30.1 39.7 32.4 0.2 4.6 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 79 21 0 100 1.2 0.2 4.6 25.3 30.4 26.1 0.3 5.6 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.2 10.2 74.5 54.3 47.3 0.9 3.4 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 4.3 2.7 7.3 32.9 34.7 30.7 2.6 13.3 21.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 1.0 1.1 6.8 39.2 42.0 36.6 0.1 2.2 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 3.0 3.3 8.2 36.8 37.9 33.9 2.7 7.6 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 1.5 1.1 4.7 25.8 35.9 30.2 1.0 4.7 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 1.3 0.2 4.2 24.5 33.2 27.6 0.2 5.2 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 1.2 0.8 2.4 14.9 29.8 23.9 1.4 5.6 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.0 7.8 11.2 54.4 48.6 41.6 1.4 8.8 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 0.8 1.8 3.1 20.2 43.3 29.2 0.4 3.3 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 1.7 1.4 4.3 25.8 35.3 28.7 1.0 6.5 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 10.0 8.2 9.9 73.9 56.3 49.5 3.5 6.8 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 4.2 0.5 9.2 39.9 36.1 32.9 0.2 11.0 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 11.6 9.1 9.5 64.2 50.7 45.0 1.0 7.8 17.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 2.6 1.4 7.5 28.9 29.7 26.1 2.4 9.1 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.8 3.4 6.9 41.3 44.2 38.8 0.7 5.6 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 10.1 10.3 9.6 68.6 54.6 47.4 2.0 6.7 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 12.8 8.6 10.7 65.7 51.5 45.8 0.5 8.4 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 4.0 8.7 9.3 48.6 43.8 38.9 2.0 9.6 20.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.0 2.1 7.5 45.4 44.6 36.7 0.3 4.4 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 82 18 0 100 1.1 1.5 1.9 15.1 31.6 24.0 1.7 6.2 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 1.8 3.6 8.8 54.6 47.7 39.9 0.6 3.8 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 1.2 3.4 4.9 26.8 40.6 30.3 0.7 4.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 5.6 7.9 8.9 39.0 34.0 31.8 7.6 15.1 32.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 8.2 3.3 8.7 59.2 49.2 43.9 1.3 3.5 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------