***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.07.2021.-22.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 30.6 30.4 30.2 0.5 63.5 59.2 28.5 29.0 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 29.4 29.2 29.8 0.0 53.0 52.4 28.1 29.0 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 29.5 29.2 29.9 -0.1 50.8 51.4 28.3 29.1 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 23.8 23.9 28.6 1.3 73.7 69.6 20.9 22.3 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 30.8 30.8 28.8 0.6 65.0 60.6 28.6 29.5 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 29.9 30.4 27.0 1.5 76.0 72.3 27.2 28.6 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 29.9 29.4 30.2 0.6 63.3 60.8 27.9 28.8 29.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 18.7 19.1 27.3 0.9 67.5 63.9 16.8 17.8 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 29.4 29.4 28.7 0.2 58.1 55.8 28.4 28.9 29.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 30.4 29.8 27.6 0.7 65.2 62.0 27.7 28.7 29.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 29.5 30.6 28.9 0.5 62.6 59.0 28.1 29.0 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 29.8 29.6 28.8 0.8 64.7 62.4 27.5 28.5 29.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 31.0 31.2 28.6 0.8 66.0 63.1 28.2 29.9 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 29.3 29.3 28.0 0.2 57.6 55.1 27.7 28.8 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 31.5 31.4 30.9 1.4 71.3 70.0 29.2 30.2 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 31.7 31.9 28.9 0.9 67.1 63.7 28.9 30.5 31.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 29.6 29.4 29.9 0.5 64.2 60.8 27.4 28.2 29.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 29.5 29.5 27.0 1.1 71.3 66.6 26.6 28.0 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 28.8 28.1 29.5 -0.4 45.4 46.0 27.9 28.3 29.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 25.4 25.8 25.2 1.4 76.9 71.2 22.8 24.1 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 30.4 30.2 29.7 0.4 62.7 58.0 28.2 29.2 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 29.2 29.5 29.6 0.2 59.1 56.2 28.0 28.8 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 29.0 28.1 29.2 -0.7 41.3 42.1 27.9 28.5 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 29.9 29.1 28.4 0.4 61.6 58.8 27.7 28.5 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 30.9 30.7 29.1 0.8 68.0 63.7 28.4 29.4 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 29.8 30.6 28.6 0.9 65.4 63.5 27.8 29.5 30.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 30.3 29.9 29.6 0.7 66.9 62.9 27.9 28.9 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 31.6 31.5 29.6 1.4 73.1 70.8 28.9 30.0 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 24.9 25.3 26.1 1.1 72.9 67.2 21.8 23.6 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 29.2 29.0 29.9 0.0 53.0 52.2 28.0 28.6 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------