***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.08.2021.-22.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 30.4 31.2 30.3 0.9 63.7 59.5 28.7 29.9 31.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 29.9 29.7 29.9 0.6 59.0 55.9 28.1 29.4 31.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 30.0 30.6 30.1 0.4 58.4 55.4 28.2 29.5 30.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 24.8 24.8 28.9 1.4 70.5 65.1 22.2 22.9 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 32.1 31.7 28.6 0.7 63.2 58.9 28.8 30.7 31.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 30.6 31.0 26.5 1.2 69.6 64.0 27.8 29.3 30.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 29.6 30.3 30.2 1.0 64.2 60.0 28.0 29.0 30.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 19.8 19.3 27.4 0.9 65.5 60.2 16.6 18.6 19.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 30.2 30.9 28.4 0.5 58.8 56.1 28.3 29.8 31.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 31.1 30.6 27.6 0.9 64.5 59.5 28.0 30.0 30.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 30.8 31.1 28.5 0.6 58.4 57.3 28.6 30.4 31.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 30.8 30.3 28.8 0.7 60.8 58.6 28.0 29.9 30.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 32.1 31.5 27.9 0.8 61.5 60.0 28.6 30.6 32.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 27.7 30.3 27.7 0.4 59.2 55.3 27.9 29.6 30.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 31.6 31.9 30.1 1.3 68.0 64.9 29.0 30.5 31.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 32.9 32.2 28.4 0.8 62.5 60.2 29.5 31.8 32.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 29.0 29.8 30.0 1.0 67.3 60.4 27.8 28.4 29.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 30.0 29.9 27.1 1.2 68.5 62.1 26.8 29.0 29.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 29.8 29.4 29.7 0.2 54.0 52.7 28.1 29.2 30.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 26.4 26.7 25.1 1.5 71.4 64.4 22.5 25.0 26.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 27.8 30.6 29.4 0.7 61.6 57.6 28.0 29.7 31.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 29.8 29.8 29.7 0.8 64.6 57.9 28.3 29.3 29.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 27.5 29.1 29.4 -0.1 47.6 50.1 28.1 29.2 30.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 29.6 30.1 28.1 0.7 62.3 57.9 27.6 29.3 30.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 31.4 30.9 28.9 1.2 67.0 62.9 28.1 29.9 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 31.4 31.3 28.6 0.8 60.9 59.4 28.5 30.4 31.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 30.9 30.3 29.6 1.1 66.2 62.0 28.1 29.3 30.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 32.0 32.3 29.3 1.4 69.3 65.2 28.6 31.1 32.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 25.9 25.5 26.0 1.2 69.3 62.1 21.8 24.5 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 29.8 29.8 30.0 0.5 59.3 55.9 27.9 29.2 31.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------