***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.08.2021.-15.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 29.8 29.2 30.0 -0.1 49.1 51.0 27.9 29.2 31.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 29.5 28.9 29.5 -0.5 43.0 45.4 28.5 29.2 29.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 29.6 28.7 29.7 -0.7 38.4 44.7 28.4 28.9 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 22.4 22.2 28.8 0.7 59.6 58.5 20.6 21.8 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 28.4 29.7 28.4 -0.1 47.7 50.2 28.7 29.7 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 30.0 28.8 26.7 0.8 61.8 59.4 27.4 28.4 28.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 29.3 28.9 29.9 0.0 50.1 51.4 27.9 28.9 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 16.1 17.6 27.2 0.2 53.5 53.1 16.6 17.4 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 27.9 28.6 28.2 -0.5 42.1 46.7 28.3 29.0 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 27.4 28.8 27.4 0.0 50.2 51.4 27.9 28.7 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 28.0 29.0 28.4 -0.2 46.9 49.3 28.1 29.1 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 27.1 28.4 28.7 0.0 50.6 51.4 27.6 28.3 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 30.0 29.2 27.9 0.2 52.4 53.3 28.4 29.0 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 29.2 28.1 27.4 -0.6 40.6 44.9 27.8 28.7 29.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 30.1 30.1 30.2 0.9 61.6 60.1 29.0 29.6 30.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 30.7 30.0 28.3 0.2 52.3 53.1 29.1 29.9 31.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 28.8 28.5 29.7 0.0 51.0 51.7 27.4 28.5 29.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 26.5 27.9 26.8 0.3 53.8 54.3 26.7 27.7 28.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 29.1 28.4 29.3 -1.0 38.6 40.9 28.0 28.6 29.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 25.8 25.1 25.0 0.9 64.6 59.1 22.9 23.4 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 27.9 28.8 29.2 -0.4 44.4 48.0 28.4 29.1 29.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 29.3 28.8 29.4 -0.3 45.9 48.2 28.3 28.9 29.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 27.6 28.2 29.0 -1.3 36.1 37.7 28.2 28.9 29.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 29.2 27.9 27.8 -0.3 44.3 48.3 27.2 28.5 29.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 29.9 29.4 28.7 0.3 56.6 55.5 28.3 29.2 29.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 29.8 29.3 28.7 0.3 52.6 53.3 28.0 29.0 30.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 29.5 29.2 29.3 0.2 54.9 54.2 27.9 28.9 29.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 30.1 30.1 29.3 0.8 60.2 59.2 28.7 29.5 30.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 21.8 23.5 25.8 0.4 55.4 54.7 22.0 22.8 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 29.3 28.7 29.6 -0.6 42.2 45.5 28.1 28.9 29.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------