***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.08.2021.-08.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 27.6 28.8 29.0 -1.1 36.4 39.1 28.5 29.7 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 27.7 27.4 28.6 -1.7 29.9 33.1 27.8 29.6 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 27.3 27.3 28.7 -1.8 30.8 33.5 27.4 29.2 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 22.8 23.0 27.6 0.1 52.3 51.0 21.3 22.3 24.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 30.6 29.4 27.8 -0.8 42.5 42.5 28.5 29.9 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 29.3 29.3 26.5 0.5 58.8 55.9 27.4 28.9 30.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 27.5 28.2 29.0 -1.1 37.3 38.8 27.7 29.0 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 16.9 18.0 26.4 -0.3 46.9 46.8 17.4 18.1 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 27.9 28.5 27.9 -1.2 37.5 38.5 28.4 29.4 30.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 27.6 28.5 26.7 -0.6 43.2 44.1 28.3 28.7 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 27.6 28.7 28.2 -0.8 40.4 42.2 28.2 29.0 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 29.3 28.7 28.0 -0.4 46.6 46.5 27.6 28.9 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 30.7 29.8 28.1 -0.3 45.1 47.2 28.5 30.3 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 27.5 27.6 27.0 -1.5 33.4 34.9 27.5 29.0 30.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 30.7 30.5 30.3 0.3 52.1 52.5 29.4 30.3 31.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 31.0 30.0 28.2 -0.3 45.4 46.8 29.4 30.4 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 27.1 27.4 28.7 -1.3 34.8 36.7 27.2 29.0 29.7 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 26.9 27.7 26.0 -0.4 46.2 45.8 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 27.0 26.5 28.3 -2.1 26.3 29.4 27.2 28.6 30.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 24.7 24.2 24.4 0.1 53.1 51.0 23.4 24.2 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 27.7 28.4 28.7 -1.2 36.3 38.4 27.8 29.4 30.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 27.6 27.4 28.3 -1.6 31.3 34.0 27.5 29.3 30.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 26.8 26.9 28.1 -2.4 25.6 27.5 27.6 28.6 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 27.0 27.8 27.4 -1.2 37.3 38.5 27.6 28.6 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 28.1 29.6 28.0 -0.8 41.0 41.8 28.0 29.9 30.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 30.3 29.9 27.9 -0.2 47.2 48.8 28.2 29.9 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 27.4 28.6 28.5 -0.9 39.3 41.0 27.9 29.1 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 30.8 30.5 28.9 0.3 53.5 53.2 28.9 30.4 31.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 24.0 23.3 25.1 -0.4 45.8 45.7 22.5 23.4 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 27.3 27.4 28.7 -1.7 31.1 33.8 27.7 29.1 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------