***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.07.2021.-01.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 30.5 30.8 31.4 2.2 79.1 76.0 27.9 29.7 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 30.4 31.0 31.2 1.7 71.4 69.3 28.1 29.0 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 30.4 30.4 31.1 1.6 69.4 67.7 26.8 29.7 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 24.5 25.4 29.3 3.1 87.8 83.6 20.6 22.7 24.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 31.3 31.7 30.1 2.5 78.2 76.8 27.6 29.9 31.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 10 90 100 30.3 31.2 28.3 3.3 84.5 83.9 26.2 28.3 29.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 30.6 31.1 31.7 2.4 81.4 78.3 27.5 29.2 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 19.2 19.6 28.1 2.7 80.3 77.8 16.2 17.4 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 30.5 30.6 30.4 2.0 72.9 72.3 26.8 29.5 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 30.7 31.3 28.7 2.6 79.5 77.4 27.1 28.6 30.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 30.9 31.3 30.6 2.5 75.1 74.7 27.0 29.2 30.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 17 83 100 30.2 30.7 29.7 2.7 78.8 76.9 26.5 28.2 29.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 31.0 31.4 30.5 2.6 77.7 75.6 27.4 29.2 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 30.5 31.1 29.9 2.3 75.8 74.7 26.4 29.0 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 32.1 32.6 32.8 3.1 85.6 83.3 28.0 30.4 31.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 32.1 32.6 30.5 2.8 78.8 77.3 27.4 30.2 31.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 30.2 30.7 31.4 2.3 79.6 76.4 27.2 28.8 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 29.8 30.3 28.3 3.2 84.0 81.9 25.9 28.1 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 29.2 29.5 30.7 1.2 63.9 63.4 26.9 29.0 29.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 7 93 100 25.5 25.9 26.4 3.3 83.1 82.4 22.4 23.8 24.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 30.8 31.0 31.4 2.3 76.8 75.3 26.5 29.8 30.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 30.4 30.8 30.9 2.0 74.9 72.8 27.8 29.3 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 29.0 29.7 30.5 1.0 60.7 60.5 27.0 28.8 29.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 30.1 30.5 30.2 2.5 78.5 76.5 25.9 28.9 29.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 31.4 31.7 30.6 2.5 81.8 78.2 27.1 30.0 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 30.9 31.2 29.3 2.7 77.6 76.3 26.9 28.9 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 30.5 30.9 31.1 2.5 82.7 79.0 26.7 29.6 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 32.0 32.8 30.9 3.3 87.0 84.4 28.1 30.3 31.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 25.0 25.5 27.4 3.2 84.4 81.9 21.2 23.7 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 30.3 30.9 31.2 1.7 71.8 69.4 27.0 29.2 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------