***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.07.2021.-22.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 16.1 16.0 19.2 0.2 55.7 55.3 15.6 15.9 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.7 18.7 -0.1 47.7 47.1 15.4 15.9 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 18.2 17.9 19.1 -0.2 45.8 46.0 17.5 18.0 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 13.8 14.1 16.9 0.4 62.3 59.8 12.8 13.5 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.3 17.0 0.1 54.5 52.6 13.9 14.2 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 13.8 13.9 15.0 0.5 68.0 63.7 13.0 13.3 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.2 16.2 19.1 0.2 56.9 56.0 15.5 16.1 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.1 9.0 14.7 0.1 54.7 53.7 8.6 8.9 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 14.9 15.4 16.8 -0.2 45.3 45.0 15.3 15.4 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.5 15.3 0.0 50.9 49.9 15.3 15.5 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 14.5 15.0 16.5 -0.2 46.2 46.9 14.6 15.0 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.3 15.8 0.1 55.4 53.7 12.8 13.2 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 14.6 14.4 15.1 0.0 47.6 50.2 13.8 14.4 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.1 16.6 -0.1 46.8 46.5 16.0 16.1 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 16.8 17.3 18.9 0.5 65.6 62.5 16.2 16.6 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.1 16.1 0.1 53.6 54.2 15.3 16.1 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 16.6 16.5 18.6 0.1 56.5 53.8 16.1 16.5 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.9 14.1 14.7 0.2 60.7 56.9 13.3 13.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 16.0 15.6 18.5 -0.4 40.1 40.3 15.4 15.8 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 10.3 10.4 12.8 0.5 68.4 64.2 9.2 10.1 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.3 18.2 -0.1 50.0 49.3 15.1 15.3 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.4 18.5 -0.1 49.9 48.6 15.0 15.4 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 15.4 14.9 18.3 -0.6 35.1 36.0 14.9 15.3 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.1 16.6 0.0 50.0 49.4 15.5 16.1 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 15.8 15.9 18.2 0.4 61.5 59.8 15.4 15.7 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 14.7 14.8 14.8 0.2 58.9 56.6 14.0 14.5 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 16.0 16.0 18.8 0.4 63.0 61.6 15.6 15.9 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 14.5 14.7 17.5 0.4 64.2 61.1 13.8 14.3 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 13.3 13.3 14.1 0.2 58.7 56.1 12.6 13.1 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.2 16.0 19.0 -0.1 47.1 47.5 15.7 16.0 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------