***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.08.2021.-22.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 14.8 15.9 18.7 0.2 54.4 51.9 14.9 15.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 14.3 15.4 18.2 0.0 49.8 49.4 14.3 15.4 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 16.7 17.6 18.6 -0.1 47.6 48.1 17.0 17.8 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 14.2 14.7 16.6 0.5 61.5 57.3 12.1 13.7 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 14.1 14.0 16.2 0.1 53.5 50.9 13.1 13.6 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.3 13.4 14.6 0.4 57.0 56.4 12.4 13.0 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.5 18.6 0.3 53.5 53.2 15.0 15.4 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 8.7 8.6 14.4 0.2 52.7 52.8 7.7 8.3 10.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 13.9 15.0 16.0 -0.1 47.2 47.6 14.1 15.1 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.3 14.8 0.1 50.6 51.0 14.5 15.3 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 13.6 14.7 15.9 0.1 51.1 50.4 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.2 13.0 15.2 0.2 51.6 51.9 11.8 13.0 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.3 14.1 0.1 49.9 51.4 13.2 13.3 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 14.7 15.5 15.9 -0.1 46.5 47.9 14.8 15.5 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 16.9 17.0 18.2 0.6 61.2 59.0 15.3 16.7 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.7 15.2 0.2 53.7 52.9 14.5 15.7 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 15.3 16.0 18.2 0.3 52.7 53.1 15.4 15.9 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 13.3 13.2 13.9 0.3 54.1 53.8 12.3 12.9 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 14.5 15.0 18.1 -0.2 45.8 46.3 14.7 15.1 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.5 9.6 12.0 0.4 58.8 57.4 8.8 9.3 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 13.8 14.6 17.5 0.0 49.9 49.0 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 15.0 14.7 18.0 0.2 51.9 51.3 14.1 14.6 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 13.8 14.0 17.8 -0.4 41.9 43.5 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 14.3 15.1 15.8 0.0 49.4 50.1 14.3 15.2 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.2 17.4 0.4 57.0 54.4 14.5 15.1 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.4 14.1 0.1 49.8 52.3 13.6 14.4 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 16.4 16.3 18.0 0.4 57.4 54.1 14.6 15.9 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.2 14.6 16.9 0.5 60.3 57.6 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.6 13.5 0.3 56.1 54.4 11.9 13.2 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.4 18.5 0.0 49.9 49.7 15.0 15.4 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------