***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.08.2021.-15.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 15.0 15.8 18.5 -0.6 38.0 42.3 15.3 16.3 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 14.8 15.3 18.1 -0.7 36.7 38.7 15.0 15.6 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 17.0 17.3 18.6 -0.8 35.2 38.0 17.2 18.2 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 12.6 13.6 16.7 0.0 50.4 50.2 12.2 13.6 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 13.3 13.5 16.3 -0.4 39.2 43.9 13.3 14.3 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 12.8 13.5 14.9 0.1 54.9 52.1 12.6 13.4 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.4 18.5 -0.5 41.7 43.2 15.2 15.7 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 8.2 8.8 14.4 -0.3 43.7 45.2 8.5 8.9 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 14.6 15.0 16.1 -0.6 36.2 41.1 14.9 15.4 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 14.5 15.2 14.9 -0.4 41.7 44.2 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 14.1 14.6 16.0 -0.5 39.8 43.4 14.3 14.8 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 12.5 12.9 15.3 -0.4 42.8 44.5 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 13.4 14.3 14.5 -0.2 48.2 47.0 13.4 14.5 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 15.2 15.8 16.0 -0.6 36.3 40.1 15.7 16.3 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.4 18.4 0.2 57.4 54.5 15.7 16.1 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 14.9 15.7 15.4 -0.2 46.1 47.3 14.6 15.9 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.8 16.2 18.1 -0.4 41.7 43.3 15.6 16.7 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 12.6 13.5 14.1 -0.1 46.3 47.3 12.8 13.6 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 14.9 15.3 18.0 -0.9 32.1 35.3 15.3 16.0 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.9 12.1 0.1 54.9 52.0 9.2 9.9 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 14.3 14.7 17.6 -0.6 36.1 41.1 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 14.4 14.7 17.9 -0.6 37.8 39.7 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 14.3 14.6 17.9 -1.0 29.8 33.7 14.6 15.5 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 14.8 15.5 16.0 -0.5 38.8 42.3 15.4 15.8 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 14.5 15.5 17.3 -0.3 42.1 46.4 14.5 15.7 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 13.8 14.7 14.4 -0.2 48.6 47.2 14.0 14.8 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 14.8 15.2 17.9 -0.3 41.2 45.7 14.8 15.4 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.6 17.1 0.1 53.4 52.1 13.0 14.3 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.3 13.0 13.6 -0.1 49.4 48.7 12.5 13.0 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 15.1 15.6 18.4 -0.7 37.0 38.6 15.2 16.3 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------