***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.08.2021.-08.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 16.6 15.9 18.6 -0.8 35.4 37.9 15.8 16.2 17.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 14.8 15.2 18.0 -1.3 29.0 31.0 15.3 16.4 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 16.7 17.3 18.5 -1.2 30.1 32.2 17.4 18.1 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 14.1 13.6 16.6 -0.3 42.8 44.7 12.7 13.8 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 13.7 14.1 16.7 -0.7 36.5 38.7 13.9 15.1 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 13.7 13.6 14.8 0.1 52.8 51.5 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 15.0 15.9 18.3 -1.0 34.0 36.2 15.8 16.3 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.5 8.8 14.3 -0.6 38.7 39.9 8.5 9.4 10.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 14.9 15.8 16.5 -0.9 33.0 34.3 15.8 16.3 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 15.0 15.5 15.0 -0.7 36.1 37.7 15.5 16.0 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 14.7 14.7 16.3 -0.8 34.9 36.7 14.7 15.9 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 14.1 13.4 15.5 -0.5 40.9 41.5 13.2 13.8 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 15.2 14.6 15.3 -0.3 45.2 44.6 14.1 14.9 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 15.1 15.9 16.3 -0.9 31.9 33.1 16.1 16.8 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 17.1 16.7 18.9 0.0 48.8 48.8 15.9 16.8 18.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 16.8 16.1 16.0 -0.3 44.3 44.1 15.5 16.5 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 15.5 16.0 17.9 -1.1 31.6 32.9 16.0 16.9 17.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.9 14.3 14.4 -0.5 40.7 41.1 13.9 14.8 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 14.5 15.2 17.9 -1.5 24.3 27.5 15.7 16.4 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 10.8 10.1 12.7 -0.2 44.9 46.4 9.5 10.5 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 14.6 15.5 17.8 -0.8 35.1 36.6 15.3 15.9 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 14.1 14.9 17.8 -1.3 27.0 30.1 15.2 16.0 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 77 23 0 100 14.1 14.0 17.8 -1.6 22.0 25.7 15.0 15.9 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 15.1 15.9 16.4 -0.8 34.9 35.5 15.9 16.6 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 16.4 15.6 17.7 -0.6 38.8 40.5 15.4 16.0 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 14.9 14.6 14.8 0.0 47.5 48.5 14.1 14.6 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 16.8 15.4 18.1 -0.6 38.9 40.6 15.0 16.3 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 14.9 14.6 17.3 -0.1 48.5 48.1 14.3 14.7 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 12.4 13.2 13.7 -0.5 39.5 40.3 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 15.2 15.2 18.3 -1.2 29.6 32.0 15.7 16.7 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------