***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.07.2021.-01.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 16.9 17.5 21.0 2.0 89.3 86.4 15.3 15.7 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 16.4 16.7 20.4 1.4 79.1 78.3 15.5 15.8 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 18.4 18.8 20.6 1.2 77.3 74.9 16.9 17.5 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 14.2 14.4 17.9 1.3 75.9 75.7 12.7 13.4 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 15.4 15.6 18.7 1.3 78.2 76.5 13.7 14.8 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 14.5 14.7 15.8 1.2 79.4 77.0 13.2 13.9 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 17.2 17.6 21.0 2.0 90.4 86.8 15.2 16.4 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 9.7 9.9 15.8 1.1 74.2 74.0 8.1 8.9 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 16.2 16.2 18.5 0.8 66.4 67.1 15.5 15.7 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 16.1 16.4 16.6 0.9 68.3 68.9 15.2 15.5 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 45 55 100 16.0 16.1 17.9 0.6 63.9 63.4 14.7 15.4 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 14.4 14.8 17.2 1.2 76.1 73.7 12.6 13.5 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 15.3 15.4 16.6 0.3 57.6 57.5 14.1 15.2 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 16.7 17.0 18.3 1.0 70.1 72.4 15.6 16.1 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 18.2 18.7 20.1 1.1 77.3 75.5 16.3 17.0 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 16.5 16.5 17.6 0.8 70.3 68.5 15.3 16.0 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 17.6 18.0 20.4 1.7 86.8 83.4 15.9 16.5 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 15.1 15.5 16.3 1.3 79.0 77.2 13.3 14.4 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 16.5 16.4 20.1 1.0 69.0 70.2 15.1 15.8 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 11.2 11.7 14.6 1.6 84.6 81.3 9.7 10.2 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 16.4 16.7 19.9 1.2 77.5 75.8 15.0 15.7 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 16.2 16.5 20.4 1.4 79.0 78.0 14.9 15.6 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 15.4 15.9 19.8 0.7 61.3 62.7 14.7 15.2 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 16.8 16.9 18.3 1.0 72.7 73.5 15.6 16.3 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 16.4 17.6 20.2 2.0 88.6 86.0 14.7 15.5 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 15.5 15.7 16.0 1.0 74.3 72.2 14.1 15.0 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 3 97 100 16.8 17.7 20.9 2.4 93.8 91.1 14.5 15.2 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 15.5 15.6 18.5 1.1 75.8 74.5 14.3 14.9 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 13.7 14.0 15.3 1.1 74.6 73.3 12.4 12.9 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 17.0 17.4 20.7 1.5 80.5 78.3 14.9 16.0 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------