***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.07.2016.-21.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 56.3 47.8 35.8 87.6 60.7 50.4 21.4 44.1 51.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 51.6 57.2 33.9 90.6 59.6 49.7 23.6 42.1 67.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 54.1 53.9 38.4 97.2 59.6 53.5 19.5 46.8 68.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 50.3 51.4 36.5 90.6 62.6 53.6 32.8 43.9 56.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 30.4 27.9 39.5 99.5 61.5 56.2 20.5 24.6 34.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 45.8 51.9 47.7 114.5 66.0 60.8 26.9 38.3 51.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 48.4 47.0 33.6 90.0 57.0 49.1 22.3 42.3 50.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 76.1 79.5 52.6 121.8 67.1 62.9 46.1 65.9 76.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 43.7 49.6 42.4 103.0 62.2 56.2 26.2 36.0 56.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 57.4 68.3 52.7 111.6 63.9 58.9 32.8 51.3 69.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 41.2 47.1 38.8 103.0 62.2 57.2 20.2 37.9 49.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 41.6 53.3 39.8 113.3 64.6 60.2 23.3 35.3 53.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 37.4 36.1 37.7 105.0 59.2 57.6 21.6 32.8 37.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 67.6 72.5 53.1 101.6 63.0 55.2 32.5 54.6 83.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 39.7 35.1 26.1 75.6 54.9 49.2 15.0 32.9 37.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 35.4 37.5 36.9 103.3 60.4 57.1 19.3 32.3 39.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 52.1 46.9 33.2 88.4 57.7 49.1 30.3 43.7 53.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 77.7 83.7 60.9 118.9 66.7 61.4 29.2 41.5 83.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 54.8 71.8 36.7 96.0 61.3 52.0 28.8 46.9 76.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 44 56 100 62.1 70.6 64.8 127.4 68.4 65.4 33.7 44.8 62.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 48.6 51.6 38.7 96.3 60.1 53.7 28.8 43.3 58.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 50.6 48.7 36.3 95.2 61.4 52.6 33.1 42.1 59.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 49.1 50.6 41.3 103.5 63.6 55.2 26.2 41.7 52.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 56.6 63.9 50.4 108.0 63.9 58.1 33.7 48.3 65.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 44.2 45.2 37.4 84.8 55.2 49.1 30.2 39.1 56.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 51.6 63.1 38.4 131.3 77.3 68.7 24.4 28.5 42.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 50.5 47.9 38.2 86.3 58.5 49.6 30.2 41.0 52.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 29.5 29.4 34.9 92.8 61.8 55.0 16.2 23.4 33.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 73.2 80.1 63.3 117.9 65.0 61.3 48.1 66.3 82.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 41.4 47.6 34.9 91.8 58.8 50.8 17.6 31.6 54.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------