***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.08.2016.-21.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 3.1 8.5 4.2 69.1 60.0 46.7 0.5 6.7 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 6.8 8.0 3.9 61.8 64.2 46.5 1.1 4.8 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.9 8.0 4.0 61.7 57.2 43.8 1.3 5.8 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 5.1 5.0 3.0 59.2 58.4 46.0 0.2 0.9 8.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 2.0 1.0 2.8 52.4 56.7 45.0 0.0 0.3 2.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 0.5 5.6 4.7 78.2 68.9 45.0 0.0 1.2 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.8 13.5 4.5 74.5 68.2 47.1 0.8 4.1 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 1.8 12.6 4.7 68.0 62.4 45.2 0.9 4.0 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 0.1 3.1 3.1 49.5 57.9 43.9 0.0 0.2 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 0.6 5.4 4.3 56.6 59.1 43.9 0.0 1.2 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 0.3 1.3 2.9 54.6 59.6 42.5 0.0 0.7 2.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 0.3 4.8 4.1 74.8 65.9 47.8 0.0 0.6 4.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 0.0 2.4 4.4 81.7 72.0 44.6 0.0 0.0 1.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 10.5 7.8 4.7 48.6 51.7 41.1 1.0 7.6 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 0.3 2.4 2.2 57.5 63.1 45.8 0.0 0.7 3.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 1.2 1.7 3.3 65.4 65.0 46.4 0.0 0.3 1.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.6 7.3 4.0 57.1 64.7 45.5 1.4 5.2 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 5.0 5.2 5.6 58.6 56.1 41.7 0.3 3.0 7.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 1.8 7.9 3.8 58.5 60.6 44.7 1.6 3.6 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 2.8 9.6 7.0 69.6 58.6 45.8 0.8 6.3 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 4.7 2.4 3.1 49.4 55.3 42.7 0.1 1.9 4.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 6.9 9.8 4.8 59.2 64.3 47.1 0.7 4.7 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.1 7.9 3.9 57.1 57.9 43.3 2.2 6.4 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 7.1 8.6 4.7 55.0 54.3 41.4 0.6 4.1 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 3.5 2.8 3.4 55.4 56.6 45.0 0.2 1.1 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 0.0 6.8 3.9 90.6 75.2 48.9 0.0 0.0 1.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.0 10.9 4.5 67.4 59.4 44.7 3.7 8.4 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 4.2 4.1 2.7 61.6 62.7 47.3 0.3 1.3 5.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 10.7 7.0 6.4 59.9 56.3 42.3 0.5 6.1 10.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.2 10.4 4.2 68.1 65.6 47.4 0.6 4.1 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------