***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.08.2016.-14.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 6.8 19.2 9.7 147.8 77.7 62.6 0.3 3.6 10.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 7.6 21.8 11.0 175.7 81.1 60.7 2.2 4.8 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 7.1 21.7 9.7 155.1 78.0 60.6 1.3 4.1 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 18.5 24.7 8.7 148.8 78.2 59.5 1.0 9.2 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 7.2 17.3 7.6 140.7 77.8 52.9 1.0 4.3 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.1 21.1 8.2 106.1 73.9 54.9 1.9 6.3 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 7.1 16.3 10.7 170.7 82.6 59.8 2.3 5.3 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 12.3 20.7 9.6 151.9 77.7 56.6 1.6 10.5 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.9 16.4 8.9 149.7 77.7 56.2 1.8 5.6 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 11.1 15.2 10.3 147.5 76.2 56.9 4.7 9.8 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 9.7 20.8 6.2 126.7 77.4 51.7 2.4 6.8 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 8.3 16.6 7.1 143.7 77.7 58.7 1.6 6.1 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 7.2 10.6 6.7 118.6 71.5 60.4 0.7 4.8 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 13.2 18.5 13.4 142.9 78.9 58.4 4.8 11.9 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 10.7 18.5 7.0 148.2 80.0 60.4 0.4 3.0 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 7.1 14.8 6.4 120.2 74.6 59.7 0.4 4.5 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 11.8 17.1 10.8 173.5 81.6 62.9 4.3 6.3 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.9 16.8 12.2 146.0 72.2 58.4 4.3 8.8 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 6.4 21.3 11.1 173.7 80.9 58.2 2.3 3.5 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 15.4 18.2 12.3 140.3 72.0 60.9 3.3 6.3 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.1 19.6 8.8 148.9 76.2 57.9 1.3 5.9 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.3 18.6 11.8 175.9 82.4 61.2 4.1 7.3 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 5.0 12.8 11.0 166.7 80.7 58.9 1.0 3.2 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 14.1 20.9 11.1 145.2 73.8 58.7 3.7 12.1 19.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 10.9 22.1 9.6 142.2 76.2 58.3 0.6 7.3 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.6 13.9 6.6 145.2 77.4 54.1 0.0 4.1 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 5.9 12.4 10.3 141.2 77.3 61.2 0.8 4.1 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 14.9 22.7 8.0 143.6 78.3 61.9 1.1 3.8 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 16.5 26.4 12.7 138.0 72.6 59.6 4.5 14.0 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 6.0 11.1 10.2 170.0 80.6 57.3 2.9 5.2 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------