***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.08.2016.-07.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 7.5 12.6 7.4 82.4 68.7 50.0 1.4 4.3 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 11.8 15.2 6.9 75.3 63.8 48.3 0.6 8.5 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 9.0 9.4 7.8 86.1 66.0 52.5 3.0 6.9 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 10.3 10.3 6.8 78.6 66.6 53.7 0.9 8.2 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.1 9.4 7.1 81.6 66.3 51.4 0.6 6.3 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.4 10.0 7.6 76.4 60.4 46.3 1.4 4.9 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.2 13.3 6.4 69.0 61.4 45.4 0.7 9.0 15.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 18.0 21.4 8.8 90.9 67.8 52.6 7.6 13.1 21.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 9.0 17.7 8.9 101.7 71.0 56.5 0.6 6.2 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.5 27.2 9.5 90.3 68.0 52.2 2.9 7.1 26.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 1.6 6.0 6.8 68.5 58.7 46.5 0.3 3.3 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.1 16.3 7.2 93.8 70.2 53.8 2.4 6.9 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 6.5 9.6 7.9 105.0 69.0 59.3 0.5 3.8 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.1 12.5 8.8 84.5 66.6 51.2 1.4 4.3 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 6.6 5.8 5.6 69.6 59.6 48.4 0.1 2.4 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 8.1 9.0 7.3 88.7 65.7 55.0 2.4 5.9 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 12.6 11.4 6.8 71.6 60.4 46.0 3.2 8.5 22.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.6 17.1 11.6 109.7 70.5 52.6 5.0 10.6 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 14.5 15.7 7.3 80.0 64.9 49.6 0.9 10.5 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.5 18.0 11.8 117.2 70.9 55.0 4.4 9.5 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 6.7 14.9 8.4 96.3 71.4 53.4 0.3 3.8 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.5 10.0 7.3 79.9 64.3 49.2 2.2 5.8 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.5 11.9 7.7 82.8 62.9 48.5 2.3 5.4 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 16.9 27.2 10.3 105.9 69.5 54.9 1.9 12.6 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 7.1 15.2 9.2 99.9 69.8 54.9 0.1 3.6 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.7 17.3 8.3 115.1 66.5 55.5 1.7 6.4 17.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.4 8.6 8.9 91.2 68.2 51.1 1.6 5.4 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.2 6.6 6.1 76.5 65.3 52.1 0.1 4.3 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.4 22.6 13.0 111.5 68.6 54.2 3.8 15.3 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.1 7.6 6.4 69.7 62.6 45.0 1.5 4.4 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------