***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.07.2016.-31.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 6.6 8.3 14.3 75.2 57.5 54.3 0.8 3.6 10.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 7.8 7.6 12.1 77.4 58.4 52.7 0.4 4.1 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 8.2 11.5 16.8 95.7 65.7 57.7 0.7 4.8 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 9.7 18.4 18.0 86.7 61.0 59.0 2.1 6.7 22.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 7.2 15.1 22.1 109.6 66.4 62.9 0.2 5.6 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 18.4 25.3 27.2 152.6 75.1 69.8 0.7 5.4 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 6.4 6.2 12.0 76.0 55.8 51.2 1.3 4.2 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 30.3 37.7 29.5 146.2 74.4 70.6 3.7 13.1 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 6.4 16.5 21.5 106.9 66.4 61.7 0.1 3.2 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 12.0 21.2 28.6 129.1 69.0 66.4 3.0 8.1 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 44 56 100 17.5 21.2 22.9 134.1 71.8 66.7 1.0 6.2 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 9.1 16.1 21.4 127.9 69.4 65.5 0.1 5.2 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 91 9 100 7.4 14.8 18.7 108.0 64.9 61.2 0.8 6.1 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 14.1 19.9 26.1 115.5 70.0 62.9 1.4 8.8 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 91 9 100 4.7 6.6 11.4 63.4 60.6 57.1 1.2 3.8 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 7.0 10.0 19.9 117.8 67.6 63.0 0.9 5.3 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 11.3 7.3 11.6 78.3 56.2 49.5 2.8 5.6 16.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 16.8 26.2 31.5 139.5 66.7 67.4 1.6 12.5 25.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 8.0 14.1 14.6 88.9 62.3 56.0 0.5 3.8 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 17.8 22.2 33.6 160.0 74.5 72.4 2.4 9.1 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 10.1 16.6 18.4 95.3 61.9 58.5 0.9 6.5 22.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 12.0 12.8 12.5 87.3 57.7 51.5 3.1 6.1 25.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 8.4 21.8 18.8 108.7 69.4 61.0 1.3 5.1 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 11.9 16.1 24.3 118.2 64.3 63.2 2.0 9.4 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 11.8 11.4 15.2 68.7 55.3 52.7 0.3 10.5 17.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 18.4 23.9 19.6 153.5 77.3 72.1 0.9 7.3 18.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 5.7 4.3 14.6 70.8 55.2 52.8 1.6 3.6 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 6.6 13.1 18.1 91.4 64.1 60.6 2.6 4.4 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 48 52 100 30.7 32.8 31.3 142.5 69.5 68.5 10.3 16.1 31.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 7.7 8.6 14.0 84.4 61.5 55.2 1.3 4.3 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------