***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.07.2016.-21.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 29.5 29.2 29.5 -0.4 48.1 46.5 28.4 29.2 30.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 29.3 29.1 30.0 0.0 50.9 51.2 28.0 29.0 29.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 29.3 29.1 30.0 -0.1 50.9 50.3 28.2 29.1 29.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 22.6 23.0 28.2 0.4 58.9 57.5 21.3 22.4 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 29.9 29.6 28.4 0.0 50.1 50.7 28.9 29.6 31.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 29.1 28.8 25.9 -0.1 50.3 50.4 27.2 28.7 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 29.1 28.9 29.9 0.0 50.2 50.3 28.1 28.9 29.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 18.2 17.7 26.2 -0.2 46.2 47.5 17.1 17.9 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 29.3 29.0 28.8 0.1 53.9 52.3 28.5 29.0 29.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 29.2 28.7 27.0 0.0 51.4 50.5 28.1 28.7 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 29.4 29.1 28.3 0.0 50.1 51.1 28.2 29.1 30.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 29.0 28.4 27.5 -0.2 46.7 47.5 28.1 28.6 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 30.5 29.9 27.2 -0.4 45.5 45.9 28.3 30.2 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 29.1 28.9 28.2 0.2 54.8 54.2 27.6 28.8 29.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 31.3 30.8 30.1 0.6 64.1 60.8 29.3 30.4 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 31.0 30.7 28.0 0.1 50.2 52.6 29.1 30.7 31.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 28.5 28.6 29.8 0.3 54.3 55.1 27.4 28.2 29.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 28.4 28.0 26.2 -0.1 50.4 49.8 26.9 28.0 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 28.7 28.6 30.2 0.2 52.9 53.7 27.7 28.4 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 24.5 23.6 23.9 -0.3 41.9 46.2 23.3 24.1 25.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 29.4 29.1 29.4 -0.2 50.3 48.4 28.3 29.1 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 29.1 28.9 29.6 0.2 50.7 53.0 27.9 28.8 29.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 28.8 29.2 30.4 0.7 58.6 59.4 27.9 28.6 29.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 28.8 28.8 28.2 0.1 53.6 52.9 27.7 28.6 29.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 29.7 29.4 28.2 -0.3 49.4 47.7 28.5 29.4 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 30.0 28.9 27.0 -0.5 38.8 42.9 28.0 29.8 30.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 29.1 28.9 28.8 -0.3 50.9 48.0 27.8 28.8 29.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 30.4 30.8 29.1 0.6 62.6 60.7 29.0 30.0 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 24.1 23.3 25.2 -0.2 45.6 47.0 22.0 23.7 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 29.2 28.9 29.8 -0.2 49.4 48.6 28.2 29.0 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------