***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.08.2016.-21.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 28.5 30.6 29.5 -0.3 49.4 48.5 29.4 30.6 31.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 28.3 30.1 29.9 0.1 55.1 51.6 28.5 30.0 30.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 28.0 30.6 30.3 0.2 54.4 52.6 28.6 30.0 31.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 23.8 23.5 28.6 0.5 57.3 55.4 22.0 23.2 24.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 31.6 31.4 28.7 0.4 55.9 53.8 29.2 31.2 32.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 29.8 29.6 26.1 0.1 53.2 51.5 28.2 29.3 31.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 28.1 29.5 29.7 -0.1 51.6 49.8 28.3 29.4 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 19.2 18.9 26.9 0.4 57.5 53.6 16.8 18.8 19.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 28.2 30.7 28.8 0.4 58.0 54.3 28.7 30.2 31.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 30.5 30.8 27.5 0.5 60.3 54.7 28.3 30.1 30.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 31.2 31.1 28.5 0.5 58.0 55.1 28.3 30.8 31.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 30.4 30.2 28.1 0.3 53.6 52.4 28.0 30.0 30.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 31.3 30.8 27.1 -0.2 48.6 48.7 28.9 30.8 32.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 27.4 30.3 28.2 0.6 59.6 55.7 28.7 29.8 30.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 31.3 31.3 29.7 0.6 57.1 55.6 28.9 30.9 32.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 29.5 32.0 28.2 0.4 53.4 53.7 29.4 31.7 33.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 27.4 28.9 29.7 0.3 54.7 52.9 28.1 28.7 30.3 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 26.8 29.5 26.8 0.5 59.2 54.2 27.5 28.9 30.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 27.9 30.0 30.2 0.4 57.5 53.6 28.4 29.7 30.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 25.5 25.3 24.4 0.3 55.6 53.1 23.2 24.9 26.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 28.2 30.5 29.4 0.1 51.0 51.5 28.2 30.2 31.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 27.8 29.9 29.5 0.2 53.2 52.8 28.5 29.5 30.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 30.8 30.2 30.4 0.8 60.9 56.6 28.6 29.8 30.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 27.2 30.4 28.3 0.6 59.8 54.8 27.5 29.7 30.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 30.4 29.5 28.0 -0.3 44.2 48.8 29.1 30.0 31.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 31.0 30.3 27.7 -0.1 49.1 48.8 28.4 30.5 31.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 30.4 29.8 28.6 -0.3 46.0 48.3 28.3 29.9 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 31.2 31.8 29.2 0.7 58.1 56.8 29.1 30.6 32.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 25.0 24.8 25.7 0.3 57.8 53.2 22.5 24.5 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 27.9 29.9 29.8 0.0 52.5 50.1 28.1 29.7 30.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------