***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.08.2016.-14.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 27.4 28.5 29.1 -1.1 38.6 39.5 28.1 29.4 30.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 27.7 28.7 29.5 -0.8 39.1 42.9 28.0 29.0 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 27.5 28.3 29.8 -0.7 42.4 43.8 27.6 29.1 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 20.3 21.5 28.4 -0.1 48.9 50.3 20.4 21.5 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 27.9 29.3 28.3 -0.5 43.5 45.5 28.9 29.5 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 26.7 28.0 26.1 -0.1 45.3 50.9 26.9 28.3 29.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 27.5 28.3 29.3 -0.9 37.8 41.1 27.5 28.9 29.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 16.0 16.9 26.4 -0.5 42.4 45.8 16.6 17.2 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 27.6 28.7 28.3 -0.6 43.3 45.2 28.2 28.9 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 27.5 28.2 26.9 -0.5 42.6 45.6 28.0 28.6 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 27.2 28.8 28.1 -0.3 46.0 47.7 28.4 28.9 30.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 26.5 27.9 27.8 -0.5 43.1 45.9 27.6 28.2 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 27.6 28.8 26.8 -0.7 38.0 43.4 28.7 29.1 30.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 27.4 28.0 27.5 -0.7 40.8 44.1 27.7 28.8 29.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 30.2 29.8 29.7 0.3 54.9 54.4 28.8 29.6 30.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 28.6 30.1 27.9 -0.2 46.6 48.5 29.1 30.2 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 27.2 28.0 29.3 -0.6 43.4 45.0 27.3 28.6 29.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 26.5 27.3 26.1 -0.7 42.0 44.2 26.9 27.6 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 27.4 28.1 29.7 -0.6 42.5 45.0 27.5 28.8 29.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 22.4 23.4 23.9 -0.7 38.7 44.3 23.0 23.7 25.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 27.5 28.3 29.0 -0.9 40.1 41.8 27.7 29.3 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 27.6 28.8 29.1 -0.7 44.1 44.1 28.0 28.8 29.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 28.9 28.3 29.8 -0.3 47.4 47.8 27.8 28.4 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 27.2 27.9 27.7 -0.6 42.9 44.7 27.1 28.6 29.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 27.9 28.3 27.7 -1.0 37.8 40.6 28.1 29.2 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 28.0 28.5 27.5 -0.4 39.6 46.3 28.1 29.3 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 27.3 28.0 28.3 -1.0 39.2 40.0 27.9 28.6 30.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 28.4 29.9 29.1 0.3 54.0 54.2 28.5 29.8 30.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 21.5 22.6 25.0 -0.8 38.2 42.4 22.2 22.9 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 27.7 28.0 29.4 -0.9 37.3 41.0 27.8 28.8 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------