***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.08.2016.-07.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 30.4 30.1 30.5 0.3 51.1 54.2 28.8 30.0 31.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 29.8 31.0 31.0 0.7 59.4 60.3 28.0 29.5 31.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 29.8 29.8 31.0 0.5 56.2 56.5 28.3 29.3 30.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 24.2 24.3 29.0 1.1 65.9 63.6 21.7 23.3 24.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 30.5 30.3 29.5 0.6 56.6 58.1 29.1 30.1 31.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 29.6 29.6 26.7 0.4 53.7 56.7 27.7 29.3 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 29.6 30.7 30.9 0.7 60.1 59.9 27.8 29.3 30.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 18.8 18.5 27.1 0.4 54.6 55.3 17.5 18.5 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 29.9 30.0 30.0 0.8 59.1 59.7 28.8 29.5 30.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 29.9 29.8 28.1 0.7 58.7 58.0 28.1 29.5 30.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 30.1 29.9 29.5 0.6 59.3 58.2 28.1 29.6 31.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 29.4 29.4 28.4 0.4 53.4 54.9 27.8 29.1 30.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 30.8 30.4 28.3 0.2 49.8 53.2 29.2 30.4 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 29.8 30.3 29.5 0.9 64.8 60.0 27.7 29.4 30.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 31.7 32.1 31.2 1.3 66.2 66.0 29.4 30.7 32.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 31.3 31.4 29.1 0.7 57.2 58.7 29.2 30.9 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 29.2 30.4 30.9 1.0 65.2 64.1 27.7 28.9 30.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 28.7 28.8 27.3 0.7 58.7 57.8 27.4 28.3 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 29.3 30.6 31.2 1.0 63.8 61.9 27.4 28.8 30.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 25.0 24.8 25.0 0.4 55.9 55.3 23.8 24.6 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 30.2 30.0 30.6 0.4 54.5 55.1 28.8 29.8 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 29.7 30.4 30.7 0.9 62.5 61.9 27.6 29.4 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 30.5 31.4 31.6 1.5 72.3 66.3 27.8 29.0 30.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 29.2 29.6 29.5 0.9 61.9 59.8 27.8 28.8 30.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 30.5 30.3 29.3 0.3 53.7 54.9 28.8 30.2 31.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 30.1 29.5 27.7 0.0 45.4 49.7 28.8 29.7 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 29.6 29.7 29.9 0.4 54.6 56.1 28.4 29.2 30.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 31.7 31.9 30.1 1.3 68.6 66.9 29.5 30.4 31.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 24.3 24.1 26.4 0.5 55.5 55.5 22.8 23.9 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 29.4 30.2 30.8 0.5 55.3 56.7 28.0 28.9 31.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------